Friday, October 9, 2009

Picks - Week 6

CBS has a double-header this weekend. They've got Bama at Ole Miss at 2:30, then UF at LSU at 7:00. Rather than put up competing SEC fare opposite the "Will Tebow play?" drama, the WWL has displaced its usual morning Big Televen and ACC snoozers and put the other SEC matchups on its family of networks in the a.m. I was worried I'd have to listen to Pam Ward's voice Saturday, but then I realized that if she were to be sighted in the greater Fayettenam area around game time, Hognation would do what had to be done.

First, our records so far (last week and for the season):

Chuck Visor: 5-4, 18-11
Max Power: 6-3, 16-13
Dick C'est Bon: 7-2, 14-12
Drake McHugh, Esq.: 6-3, 14-15
Brocktoon: 6-3, 13-16
Woody Widenhoefer: 6-3, 12-6
Carter Slade: 6-3, 9-9
Full Monte Kiffin: 6-3, 8-11
Arnold Porkzenegger: 0-0, 3-4
Herschel Talker: 0-1, 0-1

And now, my picks (leave yours in the comments):

Vanderbilt (-10.5) at Army (CBS College Sports 12 p.m. ET) - Vandy should NEVER be a two-score favorite over ANYBODY. If Vandy was playing American football against my son's U4 soccer team, you'd only have to spot the toddlers about 9 points to give them a sporting chance. Actual quote from Drake Jr. to his soccer coach last night: "Coach, I just tooted and burped at the same time." I don't think Vandy can stop that kind of "explosive" play from its opponents, even if only 3-feet tall. The U.S. Military Academy at West Point is not Homewood U4 Soccer. Vandy wins but does not cover.

Auburn (-2.5) at Arkansas (ESPN 12 p.m. ET) - Fayetteville is a tough place to play and Arky always seems to have Aub's number. But that was under the Tuberville era. Speaking of Coach Ears, I heard him on a local sportstalk show predict the Tigers by 3 TDs because "Arkansas can't stop a cold." I think the phrase is CATCH a cold. Even modern medicine can't STOP a cold. Go to your doctor with a cold virus. He will be able to do nothing for you. Tubs' former D-coord beats his former O-coord by 4. Tubs remains unemployed.

Georgia (+1.5) at Tennessee (SEC Network 12:21 p.m. ET) - OK, I agree UGA ain't very good, but UT is Gawd Awful. How in the heck are the Vols favored in this game? Each teamshas exactly one good offensive player: AJ Greene for the Dawgs and Montario Hardesty for UT. So toothless is the Big Orange passing game that UGA can stop Montario Hardesty by putting 11 men in the box if they have to. Remember when the UT-UGA game used to matter? Georgia pulls it out in a close one, because Joe Cox is better than Jonathan Crompton.

Mississippi State (-2) vs. Houston (ESPNU 12:30 p.m. ET) If you'd asked me last week I'd have confidently picked Houston. Then the Cougs went and inexplicably lost 58-41 to UTEP. Yes, the team coached by Destiny Boudreaux's former client Mike Price. UH still scored 41 points and piled up 42 first downs and 664 yards (you read that right) of offense in the loss. I don't think MSU can outscore this offense. I still pick Houston. But I wouldn't bet "one of everything" on it.

Kentucky (+9.5) at South Carolina (FS South 12:30 p.m. ET) The Gamecocks are usually good for at least one inexplicable loss a year. Kentucky showed against Bama they can play with anyone for about 27 minutes. I predict a close game up through the 4th quarter, when Sakerlina pulls ahead. Gamecocks win but do not cover.

Alabama (-4.5) at Ole Miss (CBS 3:30 p.m. ET) - The line started at Bama by a TD, but has come down a bit over the week. I really feel like this game might get out of hand for Ole Miss early. But, I do think this game is (and has been since January) viewed as something of a one game season for the Rebs. Nutt will pull out all the stops, and if Jevan Snead suddenly reverts to the QB from the end of last season, then they'll have a chance. I just don't think it'll happen. Bama wins and covers.

Florida (-7.5) at LSU CBS 8 p.m. ET (7 p.m. CT) - The question everyone across America is asking: How does Les Miles keep his hats so sparkly white? It'll take more tricks than just the magic of Clorox bleach for LSU to overcome the Gators even if Tebow doesn't play. Fortunately for the Geaux Tigers, Death Valley at night creates magic for the home team (mostly voodoo). Even if Tebow had never met Taylor Wyndham in dramatic fashion in Commonwealth Stadium, I'd have given the Tigers a chance to win this one. The uncertainty of the current situation has got to be a distraction for the Gators. Since you're giving me 7.5 points, I'll pick LSU to at least beat the spread.

Wisconsin (+16) at Ohio State - A 16 point spread seems a little high to me. Wisky is undefeated on the year. Striped rodents cover against the tree nuts.

Georgia Tech (+3) at Florida State - The normal ACC rule is pick against the hot teams and pick the cold teams.* They don't get much colder than FSU, having lost to South Florida and Boston College the last 2 weeks. And the Jackets are 4-1 coming off back-to-back wins over UNC and MSU. The Rule says bet FSU big. And FSU even has a big, inexplicable road win over BYU to make you think they've got it in them. However, the FSU program is approaching North Korean levels of dysfunction (a despotic, out-of-touch leader who keeps trying to set up his sons as heirs-apparent). Tech wins and covers. Bobby Bowden is deposed and tried for war crimes.

* Va Tech struggled a bit against Duke, BC beat FSU: take the Hoakies -13.5
Duke covered against VT, UNC lost to UVA (I know, crazy, right?): take UNC -15.5
UVA won a game last week and suddenly they're favored over a 3-2 Indiana team that played Michigan to the wire. Bet the mortgage on Indiana +7.


  1. Vanderbilt (-10.5) at Army (CBS College Sports 12 p.m. ET)- Army is pretty horrible this year. Vandy covers.

    Auburn (-2.5) at Arkansas (ESPN 12 p.m. ET)- Not sure about this one... If AU can't pressue Mallett, he will pick apart the secondary. I think the Hogs upset here.

    Georgia (+1.5) at Tennessee (SEC Network 12:21 p.m. ET)- UGA wins this ugly game

    Mississippi State (-2) vs. Houston (ESPNU 12:30 p.m. ET)- Houston lights up a bad Miss St. defense

    Kentucky (+9.5) at South Carolina (FS South 12:30 p.m. ET)-Spurrier shouldn't lose this one, but doesnt cover.

    Alabama (-4.5) at Ole Miss (CBS 3:30 p.m. ET) - I think the Tide wins and covers.

    Florida (-7.5) at LSU CBS 8 p.m. ET (7 p.m. CT)- UF is lost without Tebow. LSU wins here at night.

    Wisconsin (+16) at Ohio State - Wisconsin beats the spread but loses.

    Georgia Tech (+3) at Florida State - FSU wins this statement game for Bobby.

  2. Vanderbilt (-10.5) at Army (CBS College Sports 12 p.m. ET)- Vandy wins and covers. I'll go with this since I'm a SEC homer.

    Auburn (-2.5) at Arkansas (ESPN 12 p.m. ET)- War Eagle keeps rolling

    Georgia (+1.5) at Tennessee (SEC Network 12:21 p.m. ET)- Vols win and cover. TN D is better than Georgia D and Kiffin is starting to limit incrompetent's mistakes

    Mississippi State (-2) vs. Houston (ESPNU 12:30 p.m. ET)- I believe in the cowbell

    Kentucky (+9.5) at South Carolina (FS South 12:30 p.m. ET)-cocks beat I just can't say it. South Carolina covers

    Alabama (-4.5) at Ole Miss (CBS 3:30 p.m. ET) - Bammeroids keep rolling and cover

    Florida (-7.5) at LSU CBS 8 p.m. ET (7 p.m. CT)- tigers win and Herban cries

    Wisconsin (+16) at Ohio State - marmots upset brutus

    Georgia Tech (+3) at Florida State - yellow jackets win

  3. After a 6-3 week, I'm on a roll. Don't call me "butta" just yet, though.

    My picks:

    Vandy (-10.5): Vandy covered against Rice, and Army is not good. I WOULD like to watch Vandy play the U4 team, though. And I bet Drake Jr. could bring out the trick play called "double gas expulsion".

    Auburn (-2.5): This one is decided by Auburn's defense, surprisingly enough. Auburn wins by 7-10 points.

    Georgia (+1.5): If it was the other way around, I might consider UTK. However, I think Georgia has enough to win this, much less giving them 1.5 free points.

    Houston (+2): Don't be so quick to jump off the Houston bandwagon. Houston has a potent offense. Let's just hope they remember to play defense and not allow 58 points again. Since no one writes MSU on here, I can say that I don't think MSU is that good.

    South Carolina (-9.5): Yes I know that Kentucky put up 20 on a very good Bama defense, but I think South Carolina has what it takes to put away the Wildcats. SC fires on all cylinders, wins by at least 14.

    Alabama (-4.5): I think I would have taken Bama up to 6.5, possibly more. Jevan Snead is not the Heisman candidate he was billed as in the preseason. Bama by 2 TDs.

    Florida (-7.5): Hey, isn't Florida's backup QB good too? I still like 'em, although it would be easy to take LSU here.

    Wisconsin (+16): Badgers? More like Goodgers. Except they lose. By less than 7.

    Georgia Tech (+3): I know the ACC rule says go with FSU, but I can't. Tech looked good last week. GT wins the game.

  4. Vanderbilt (-10.5) at Army: Army wins.

    Auburn (-2.5) at Arkansas: Arkansas takes down Auburn.

    Georgia (+1.5) at Tennessee: Tennessee pulls the upset.

    Mississippi State (-2) vs. Houston: Miss. St. comes through with the win.

    Kentucky (+9.5) at South Carolina: USC wins and covers.

    Florida (-7.5) at LSU: With or without Tebow, Florida wins and covers. LSU has not shown much this year.

    Wisconsin (+16) at Ohio State: Wisconsin pulls out the win.

    Georgia Tech (+3) at Florida State: Ga Tech wins and covers.

  5. Vanderbilt (-10.5) at Army (CBS College Sports 12 p.m. ET) - I have been thinking about testing the "take the home team every time against the spread" theory. I'll go with that for this game. Army.

    Auburn (-2.5) at Arkansas (ESPN 12 p.m. ET) - I have gone against Auburn a couple of times so far and have gotten burned. Same goes for betting on Arkansas. What to do? Stay the course. Arkansas closer than 3 (which is 2.5 or better...saying it that way makes me feel more at ease and a little sneaky).

    Georgia (+1.5) at Tennessee (SEC Network 12:21 p.m. ET) - Here's where I run into problems with my home field advantage theory. because there are few better advantages than Rocky Top, but I don't think Tennessee will win. Forget the spread. Georgia wins.

    Mississippi State (-2) vs. Houston (ESPNU 12:30 p.m. ET) Scary game for a picker. I'm not sure either team is scared though. State is going to have to find a way to control the ball in this one. I don't know if they'll be able to do it enough though. Houston.

    Kentucky (+9.5) at South Carolina (FS South 12:30 p.m. ET) God Karma has caught up with Kentucky and injured their team three-fold in exchange for Kenutcky injuring the next coming (Tim Tebow). Couple that with home field advantage and last week's rest-up game against S.C. State, and the Gamecocks cover.

    Alabama (-4.5) at Ole Miss (CBS 3:30 p.m. ET) - I would love to see this one live. Maybe I'll catch the end of it after the Gamecocks play. I think Bama is going to win by 2 scores (of some kind, and not 2 safeties). So I pick Bama here.

    Florida (-7.5) at LSU CBS 8 p.m. ET (7 p.m. CT) -There are too many reasons to pick LSU in this one with the injury, the home field, the magic, the spread. Big question marks too. I would be more confident betting that Tebow is going to play every snap on offense. However, I'll go with the odds that either he doesn't play or plays a little slow and LSU beats the spread and maybe beats the Gators. LSU

    Wisconsin (+16) at Ohio State - Does Ohio State beat anyone by a lot anymore? I don't think they will make me pay for asking that question today. Wisconsin makes it closre.

    Georgia Tech (+3) at Florida State - Florida State and Georgia Tech on a neutral field would not be picked as a draw or a pick game. I think GT would be favored. Is the FSU home field advantage worth more than 3 points? I don't think so this year. GT makes it closer, if they don't flat out win.