Bowl Update

I will be editing my previous post on bowl predictions throughout the bowl season with final scores and records, so keep checking it out to see how I do (which, by the way, will be terrible, I'm sure).

Hunt For The Heisman Trophy

The Heisman Trophy is to be awarded this Saturday night (8 PM ET, ESPN). Five finalists were invited to New York for the presentation at the Nokia Theater: Alabama's Mark Ingram, Florida's Tim Tebow, Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh, Stanford's Toby Gerhart, and Texas's Colt McCoy.

The Heisman Trophy is awarded to college football's "most outstanding player", whatever that means. Given that the Maxwell Award is also awarded to the most outstanding player, I'm not sure what the difference is. Too many awards, too few deserving players.

I'm not sure I would have selected those five. If I were given the opportunity to select four players to come to New York, as is usually the case, here are the four I would have selected:

1) Case Keenum - Without Keenum, Houston has nothing. He had two games where the attempted 75 or more passes. Consequently, the ground game was pretty much nonexistent. Keenum had almost 1600 more passing yards than 2nd place Levi Brown of Troy. He also had 43 touchdown passes (4 more than Boise State's Kellen Moore) against only 9 interceptions. It's hard to deny how good this guy is, and it's a shame that Houston didn't do even better this year.

2) Toby Gerhart - Although Andrew Luck is also a credit to Stanford's impressive year, Gerhart is the bruising back that contributed most to their success. He led the nation with over 1700 yards rushing, and he also had 26 touchdowns on the ground. He had three games with over 200 yards rushing (200 on 27 carries against Washington, 223 against Oregon on 38 carries, and 205 on 29 carries against Notre Dame) and only two games where he was held to under 100 yards rushing (82 on 17 carries against Wake Forest and 96 on 20 carries against Oregon State). And he's a white running back at that.

3) Kellen Moore - Moore leads the nation in passer rating (167.3) and is second in passing touchdowns (39). He only had 3 interceptions, the least of everyday quarterbacks, and he had over 3300 yards passing. Moore was efficient also, completing 63% of his passes. Watching this guy play, you know Boise State is going to dominate for two more years as he is only a sophomore.

4) Golden Tate - I know this is a longshot, and since Notre Dame went 6-6, he wouldn't get the consideration, but his 93 catches for just shy of 1500 yards, along with 15 receiving touchdowns, is staggering. Granted I don't like Notre Dame, Tate made some impressive catches this year every time I saw them play. He was Clausen's go-to guy, much like Terry Beasley was for Pat Sullivan.

Here's why I wouldn't have invited the players who were invited:

1) Colt McCoy - 12 interceptions, 4 games under 200 yards passing

2) Tim Tebow - 2400 yards passing, lost big in SEC championship game, lackluster compared to earlier seasons

3) Mark Ingram - according to many Bama fans, not even the best running back on the team; in my opinion, not the best player on the team (Greg McElroy)

4) Ndamukong Suh - 12 sacks is pretty good, but only 82 tackles (I guess he wouldn't get as many tackles as linebackers)

I'd like to see Gerhart win it, but I doubt it would happen. Mark Ingram seems to be getting a lot of hype, but his 30 yards against Auburn on 16 carries takes it from him. McCoy may win it on his career, and many voters probably think it's his turn to win after Bradford and Tebow, which are both cop outs. I really can't believe Tebow is being invited this year, but this is also probably a traditional thing. Whoever wins, I hope that person does better than previous Heisman winners Reggie Bush, Jason White, Eric Crouch, Chris Weinke, Charlie Ward, Gino Torretta, etc.

Bowl Breakdown

I am again taking on the daunting challenge of analyzing a whole bunch of football in one sitting (see here and here for previous daunting challenges). As everyone knows, the bowls were finalized yesterday, and there is so much college football out there, it's like a whole new season began today. With that in mind, here's a breakdown of the entire bowl season, with some analysis and selections:

Saturday, December 19:
New Mexico Bowl (4:30 PM ET): Fresno State vs. Wyoming - Look for Fresno, who isn't afraid of anyone, to show Wyoming that although you may be better than in years past, you're still Wyoming. Prediction: Fresno State 34, Wyoming 17. (Actual: Wyoming 35, Fresno State 28 - Record: 0-1)

St. Petersburg Bowl (8:00 PM ET): UCF vs. Rutgers - Both of these teams have been up and down this year, and this feels like a pretty even matchup. Most of UCF's losses have come to highly ranked teams, but they do have a pretty bad pass defense, and Rutgers likes to toss the ball. Rutgers lost to Syracuse, but I like them here. Prediction: Rutgers 27, UCF 24. (Actual: Rutgers 45, UCF 24 - Record: 1-1)

Sunday, December 20:
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (8:30 PM ET): Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee State - Sure, MTSU is 9-3, but if you look at their schedule, they lost to opponents in BCS conferences (except Maryland, who had a terrible season, and it was only a 1-point win). With the exception of a loss to UAB, Southern Miss's losses were by 7 points or less. Prediction: Southern Miss 31, MTSU 20. (Actual: MTSU 42, Southern Miss 32 - Record: 1-2)

Tuesday, December 22:
Maaco Bowl Las Vegas (8:00 PM ET): Oregon State vs. BYU - This feels like it should be a game later in the bowl season. Oregon State played Oregon down to the wire for the Pac-10 championship, and BYU's only losses were to Florida State early in the season and TCU, who should be playing for a national championship against Alabama. Prediction: BYU 31, Oregon State 30. (Actual: BYU 44, Oregon State 20 - Record: 2-2)

Wednesday, December 23:
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Utah vs. California - Um, which California team is going to show up - the one that lost to Washington, Oregon, and USC by 27-39 points or the one or the one that beat Stanford and Arizona by 7 or less? On the flipside, Utah's wins this year have been by just a little generally. Prediction: Utah 27, California 25. (Actual: Utah 37, California 27 - Record: 3-2)

Thursday, December 24:
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Nevada vs. SMU - All I'm going to say is SMU lost to Washington State, which was their only win. Oh yeah, Nevada's offense is really good (OK, that's two things). Prediction: Nevada 52, SMU 35.

Saturday, December 26:
Little Caesar's Bowl (1:00 PM ET): Marshall vs. Ohio - I'm surprised Marshall even got a bowl game at 6-6. Solich's Ohio team has been very good this year, keeping games tight with Connecticut and Tennessee. Prediction: Ohio 31, Marshall 23.

Meineke Car Care Bowl (4:30 PM ET): Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina - It's a shame that Pitt isn't playing around Jan. 1, but at least they drew an ACC team, which means they will probably get the win. North Carolina beat Virginia Tech and Miami, but they lost to NC State, Virginia, and Florida State (which is because of the ACC default rule where the worse team wins). Prediction: Pittsburgh 41, UNC 27.

Emerald Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Boston College vs. USC - USC took a monumental tumble this year, and it shows by their game being on 12/26. I'm not sure Boston College was relevant this year, but then again, neither was USC. The differences between the two teams: USC is still ranked because of their media darling status and the bowl is in their home state. Prediction: USC 17, Boston College 13.

Sunday, December 27:
Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl (8:30 PM ET): Kentucky vs. Clemson - Clemson hung right in there against Georgia Tech, and Spiller, if he has a good game, will prove too much for Kentucky. Prediction: Clemson 31, Kentucky 21.

Monday, December 28:
Advocare V100 Independence Bowl (5:00 PM ET): Texas A&M vs. Georgia - Two Jekyll & Hyde teams meet up for this one. Texas A&M has played better recently than earlier in the year, and Georgia is on the upswing after lulling in the middle of the season. This one also feels close. Prediction: Georgia 34, Texas A&M 31.

Tuesday, December 29:
Eaglebank Bowl (4:30 PM ET): UCLA vs. Temple - Temple ran off 9 wins in a row in the middle of their season, with the highlight in that stretch a win over Navy, 27-24. Meanwhile, UCLA started off 3-0 before imploding. Their 3-1 stretch over the last four games got them to 6-6. However, in Pac-10 vs. MAC, I'll have to go with the BCS team. Prediction: UCLA 24, Temple 20.

Champs Sports Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Miami vs. Wisconsin - Miami looked solid in their last game against South Florida, and Wisconsin hasn't been a pushover this year, losing three to solid (at the time) Big Ten teams. Prediction: Miami 31, Wisconsin 28.

Wednesday, December 30:
Roady's Humanitarian Bowl (4:30 PM ET): Bowling Green vs. Idaho - Bowling Green has the momentum here, winning its last four and six of its last seven. Idaho, who started out 6-1, dropped 4 of its last 5. But the game's in Idaho. Prediction: Idaho 45, Bowling Green 41.

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Arizona vs. Nebraska - Thus far, this is the matchup to see. I thought Nebraska had pulled off the upset against Texas, and Arizona has played with the best of the Pac-10 this year. I wish I could call it a tie, but I think Arizona wins down the stretch. Prediction: Arizona 27, Nebraska 21.

Thursday, December 31:
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl (12:00 PM ET): Houston vs. Air Force - Houston comes in hobbling from their loss to ECU in the C-USA championship game. Air Force has won the games they should this season, but they have also lost the games they should. Houston's defense won't stop Air Force's run game, and Case Keenum will have a field day passing, say 550 yards. Prediction: Houston 48, Air Force 31.

Brut Sun Bowl (2:00 PM ET): Oklahoma vs. Stanford - Toby Gerhart should win the Heisman, but he won't. Oklahoma shouldn't have blanked or beat Oklahoma State, but they did. Surprisingly close, I'll give this one to the Sooners. Prediction: Oklahoma 31, Stanford 30.

Texas Bowl (3:30 PM ET): Navy vs. Missouri - All of Navy's games, wins or losses, have been tight this year, and Missouri has won 4 of its last 5. I like the ground attack of Navy to take this one. Prediction: Navy 29, Missouri 27.

Insight Bowl (6:00 PM ET): Minnesota vs. Iowa State - This feels like a snoozer. In the few games I saw Minnesota play this season, they looked stagnant. Iowa State's results look like a mixed bag. So who wins? The more important question is: Who cares? Prediction: Iowa State 9, Minnesota 7.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl (7:30 PM ET): Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee - Now we're talking. On paper Virginia Tech takes this one easily. In reality, this could be a tight one. Tennessee has played well of late, but I still say that Virginia Tech had an outside shot at a BCS game. Prediction: Virginia Tech 26, Tennessee 24.

Friday, January 1:
Outback Bowl (11:00 AM ET): Northwestern vs. Auburn - For some reason, people like my brother think Northwestern is a pushover. Au contraire, mon frere (literally). Northwestern beat Iowa and Wisconsin despite being heavy underdogs. Auburn has shown signs of life, and hopefully they will continue in this way, playing for more than the 1st quarter. Prediction: Auburn 24, Northwestern 23.

Konica Minolta Gator Bowl (1:00 PM ET): West Virginia vs. Florida State - Do you think the Florida State team will be up to win Bobby Bowden's last game at the helm? You better believe it! Florida State pulls the upset. Prediction: Florida State 28, West Virginia 24.

Capital One Bowl (1:00 PM ET): Penn State vs. LSU - This seems like a decent matchup for this game. Penn State got snubbed for Iowa (yes, I know Iowa beat them, but Stanzi is out, and Iowa is a different team with Vandenburg in at QB). LSU barely survived against Arkansas after losing with a bone-headed decision by Les Miles. This game will be dominated by defense. Prediction: Penn State 20, LSU 17.

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi (4:30 PM ET): Ohio State vs. Oregon - As much as I'd like to say Ohio State loses again, I'm not sure this one is so cut and dry. Oregon has played sub-par lately despite winning. Ohio State hasn't looked great either, despite winning. Two somewhat mediocre teams playing in the Rose Bowl. Prediction: Oregon 31, Ohio State 24.

Allstate Sugar Bowl (8:30 PM ET): Florida vs. Cincinnati - This one looks like a good matchup also. Cincinnati has been winning by the skin of their teeth lately, especially in the final regular season game against Pittsburgh. Florida doesn't look so dominant after being humbled by Alabama. I think the Gators will have their hands full with a Cincinnati team with a legitimate claim to playing in the national championship game, but I think they'll prevail, only slightly. Prediction: Florida 35, Cincinnati 34.

Saturday, January 2:
International Bowl (12:00 PM ET): South Florida vs. Northern Illinois - Northern Illinois hasn't played anyone, and South Florida has skidded since losing Matt Grothe at QB. You can sleep through this one. Prediction: South Florida 24, Northern Illinois 10.

Papajohns.com Bowl (2:00 PM ET): South Carolina vs. Connecticut - High expectations were had for both of these teams at the beginning of the season. South Carolina imploded for the second half, salvaging the season with a win over rival Clemson. Connecticut played through adversity with the shooting death of Jasper Howard right after their homecoming game. With the game in Birmingham, South Carolina has an advantage and wins. Prediction: South Carolina 24, Connecticut 22.

AT&T Cotton Bowl (2:00 PM ET): Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss - This one also seems like an easy call for Oklahoma State. Both teams lost to their rivals during rivalry week, and both look like they have played better. Oklahoma State has desperately needed Dez Bryant, and Ole Miss has desperately needed Jevan Snead, although he has actually been playing. Prediction: Oklahoma State 31, Ole Miss 25.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl (5:30 PM ET): Arkansas vs. East Carolina - I underestimated East Carolina. They beat Houston bad in a game that few saw happening. Arkansas ran up a string of wins until Alex Tejada's missed field goal in OT game LSU the win. C-USA doesn't have the depth of even a mid-range SEC team. Prediction: Arkansas 38, East Carolina 31.

Valero Alamo Bowl (9:00 PM ET): Michigan State vs. Texas Tech - Michigan State has played OK, with an almost win over Iowa when Iowa was good. Texas Tech has edged out by Oklahoma State and Houston and has played like a much better team than their record reflects. Prediction: Texas Tech 38, Michigan State 27.

Monday, January 4:
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Boise State vs. TCU - As much as I'm looking forward to watching this game, I think the BCS committee took the easy way out by making these two non-BCS conference teams play each other. I would much rather watch Boise State beat Oklahoma (2006-7) and Utah beat Alabama (2008-9) than watch those types of teams play each other. TCU, I think, has a legitimate claim to the title game, and I think if Boise State picked up some quality opponents, they'd have a better argument for themselves. The problem is, though, that no BCS teams want to play Boise State. I think this is another evenly matched game, and I don't really know who to go with. If I had to pick one, I think I'd take TCU. Prediction: TCU 45, Boise State 44.

Tuesday, January 5:
FedEx Orange Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Iowa vs. Georgia Tech - Snore. Prediction: Georgia Tech 45, Iowa 17.

Wednesday, January 6:
GMAC Bowl (7:00 PM ET): Central Michigan vs. Troy - This is virtually a home game for Troy, and they'll need it. Dan LeFevour is now the all-time I-A leader in touchdowns throwing, rushing, and receiving combined with 148. Yes, he caught a touchdown on a reverse against Northern Illinois in 2007. Troy can hang with teams from lesser conferences, but I think Central Michigan has the talent to win this one in Troy's backyard. Prediction: Central Michigan 27, Troy 23.

Thursday, January 7:
Citi BCS National Championship Game (8:00 PM ET): Texas vs. Alabama - As much as it pains me to say, I think Alabama has the most well-rounded team in the nation. I though Greg McElroy was a question mark coming into the season, but he has proven to be the leader that Alabama needed. Texas, on the other hand, comes into the game limping but not defeated after a nailbiter victory over Nebraska. Texas doesn't have the running game, and making them one-dimensional is the key to an Alabama victory. However, you can't deny the McCoy-Shipley connection. Since 2002, the team ranked #2 has won the game every year except for after the 2004 season in which USC defeated Oklahoma. On the flipside, the SEC is 5-0 in BCS national championship games. This will be one of the tightest national championship games since the Ohio State double overtime win over Miami after the 2001 season. Prediction: Alabama 24, Texas 21.

Holy War

Dueling religious imagery for your pre-game enjoyment.  Of course, Tebow is football Jesus, not Adam.  He's a devout Evangelical Christian, home schooled, does mission work (performs circumcisions) in the off-season, writes Bible verses on his gameday eye black.  And his coach was named after a Pope.

All we need is an image of Steve Spurrier descending from the top of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium with a "Fun 'N Gun" playbook inscribed on stone tablets.

As for Alabama, well, "There is No God but BEAR and SABAN is his Prophet."  A fanatical base that is well armed and prone to misogeny and domestic violence fervently seeking a return to imagined days of past glory.  You can understand why I won't be posting any images here.  Has Imam Finebaum issued a fatwa against the Gators yet?  Death to Florida!!

Bowl picture clears for Auburn

As reported earlier, Auburn accepted a bid to the Outback Bowl, 10 am on January 1, potentially playing against Wisconsin for the third time in a bowl game since 2003. Auburn should count itself lucky to get the best bowl game of predicted bowl games for the six SEC teams with 7-5 records (by the way, Auburn's record against these other five 7-5 teams is 1-3 with a win against Tennessee and losses against Kentucky, Georgia, and Arkansas...Auburn didn't play South Carolina).

This site has projected bowls and teams who have accepted bids to bowl games already. As of posting time, it appears six teams have accepted bids:

1) UCF, to the St. Petersburg Bowl (December 19)
2) SMU, to the Hawaii Bowl (December 24)
3) Navy, to the Texas Bowl (December 31)
4) Auburn, to the Outback Bowl (January 1)
5) Ole Miss, to the Cotton Bowl (January 2)
6) Oklahoma State, also to the Cotton Bowl (January 2)

Let the BCS discussion begin.

I know it's early, but it's really never inappropriate to discuss how the BCS system is ruining college football, not to mention that it never seems to get the correct two teams into the final game. Let's do a rundown, starting with the most recent:

2008 - Oklahoma gets in, despite that whole situation with Texas and Texas Tech, and a questionable decision to put them into the Big 12 title game, essentially locking them into that slot.

2007 - LSU gets in, despite the regular season loss to Arkansas at the end of the season. Georgia should be in, but gets snubbed since officials didn't want a team who didn't even play for their conference championship to play for a national championship. Results: Ohio State gets drubbed 38-24, Georgia beats Hawaii 41-10.

What do you think the next Uga should be?

I'm sure you've read, but with the passing of Uga VII a couple of weeks ago, what is the University of Georgia going to do? You might think that the university isn't sure, which is probably why PETA gave its suggestion for a suitable replacement. Is it just me, or are those guys crazy?

Rivalry Week - by the numbers

84 - Number of seconds #2 Alabama led Auburn on Friday.  It just happened to be the last 84 seconds.

1.5 - Mean number of college football legends in their last regular season game Saturday in Gainesville.  1 is Heisman winner Tim Tebow, who scored 5 TDs before leaving the game in the 4th quarter.  .5 is Bobby Bowden, who has about a 50/50 chance of returning as Florida State's head coach next season.

22 - The most yards on a single rush by both Dexter McCluster and Anthony Dixon on Saturday.  Both runs came on TD drives in the 2nd Quarter.  McCluster's 22 yard scamper was the first play of a 6-play 73-yard drive.  Dixon's run set up Mississippi State 1st and goal at the 4.  Here, the similarities end.  McCluster accounted for 82 of Ole Miss' 90 yards on the ground.  Miss State, on the other hand, rolled up 412 yards of offense (317 on the ground) in a 41-27 route of Ole Miss. 

9 - Number of points scored in 2 overtime games Saturday.  LSU kicked a field goal in OT to beat Arkansas 33-30.  Tennessee scored a TD (no kick required) to beat Kentucky 30-24.

2 - Number of chances it took Les Miles and LSU to figure out how to manage the clock at the end of a game.   If you're going to call timeout, do it right after the play ends.  Use the sidelines and get out of bounds.  Give yourself time to kick the field goal at the end.  Unlike last week, LSU did all these things against Arkansas, propelling themselves to overtime and a win.

7-5 - Regular season record of, count 'em, 6 SEC teams: Arkansas, Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina and Tennesee.    How do you determine who goes to what bowl out of that mish-mash?

0 - Number of ACC Division Champs able to beat middling SEC teams on Saturday.  South Carolina dominated Atlantic Division Champ Clemson 34-17.  Georgia outlasted a comeback attempt by Coastal Division Champ #7 Georgia Tech 30-24.  As if we needed more evidence of the SEC's superiority over the ACC.