Thursday, September 9, 2010

Picks - Week 2

Britney Spears

Last week's records:

Full Monte Kiffin: 8-5

Drake McHugh, Esq.: 8-6

Brocktoon: 7-7

Dick C'est Bon: 0-1


Leave your picks in the comments.


Auburn (-2) at Mississippi State, 7:30 ET / 6:30 CT, ESPN – One thing’s for sure – this will not be a repeat of the 3-2 score last time these teams met in Starkville. There will be offense, and lots of it. And you don’t have to be Admiral Ackbar to see the huge trap potential here. Home underdogs seem to do well on Thursday nights. Auburn’s defense showed no signs of improvement over last year in their opener. I see the potential for a road loss similar to what happened to Auburn at Arkansas last year. Auburn will have to score early to take the crowd and the cowbells out of the game. I still think Auburn has the better athletes, and with Mississippi State, I want them to show me something more than beating up on Memphis before I buy the hype. I am very hesitantly taking the Tigers.


Georgia (+3.5) at South Carolina, 12:00 ET / 11:00 CT, ESPN2 – Like MSU, I tend to take the “I’ll believe it when I see it” approach to South Carolina. But, it’ll be a big road test for Georgia’s freshman quarterback, who won’t have his go-to receiver with AJ Greene out. South Carolina always plays Georgia close and occasionally scores the upset. If this were a straight-up pick-em, I might take Carolina. But with a nearly 4 point line, I think I’ll take the ‘Dawgs, not because I like them to win, necessarily, but because I think it’ll be an extremely tight game.

USF (+15) at Florida, 12:21 ET / 11:21 CT, SEC Network – USF has had this game circled the entire off-season. I don’t think it matters. The Bulls don’t have the athletes to hang with the Gators. However, someone will have to be able to actually snap the ball to the QB before that matters. USF will hang close, but not win. So, I’ll take the Bulls and the points.

LSU (-9.5) at Vanderbilt, 7:00 ET / 6:00 CT, ESPNU – Vanderbilt was incredibly mistake prone against a Northwestern team that they had every chance to beat. LSU was mistake prone against a UNC team they actually did beat. LSU’s lack of discipline and offensive identity will bite them this year, just not in this game. Bayou Bengals cover.

Penn State (+12) at Alabama, 7:00 ET / 6:00 CT, ESPN – I think that Alabama will win by about two touchdowns, so I guess I’ll take them to cover. I wonder how much Saban will run up the score on Joe Pa, with all the “history and tradition” hoopla surrounding this game. Do you think Bama will let Penn State stay close enough so that a late score by the Nittany Lions bring them within the spread? Maybe, but I’ll still take the Tide.

UL-Monroe (+34) at Arkansas, 7:00 ET / 6:00 CT, FSN South – Pass-happy ‘Hogs will win and cover.

Oregon (-12) at Tennessee, 7:00 ET / 6:00 CT, ESPN2 – Did you see that Oregon scored 72 points last week? Tennessee’s defense, as decimated as it may be, will still give the Ducks more of a challenge than they’ll see all year in the PAC-10. Ironically enough, if Lane Kiffin were still on Rocky Top, I’d pick the Vols to cover, based on their underdog performances against Florida and Alabama. Dooley, on the other hand, will take chances to try to win, and in the process let the Ducks cover. I’m taking Oregon.

Western Kentucky (+24.5) at Kentucky, 7:30 ET / 6:30 CT, CSS – Western Kentucky is in only their second year of Div. IA football and with a new head coach. I think Kentucky blows them out of Commonwealth Stadium. Cats cover.

Ole Miss (-20.5) at Tulane, 9:00 ET / 8:00 CT, ESPN2 – There’s strong temptation to extrapolate last weekend’s stunning loss, say, hey, Tulane has to be better than Jacksonville State, and pick Tulane to at least cover, especially with such a huge line. Sample sizes of one, however, have terrible predictive value. Then there’s the cliché: Houston Nutt is at his best when his back’s against the wall. Clichés usually have some truth behind them. Ole Miss either pulls it together or else this is going to be a long season. I think the Rebels will play well and actually cover.

Bonus Picks:

Florida State (+7.5) at Oklahoma – Based on Oklahoma’s poor performance last week in barely beating Utah State, I have to think this line is a little large. It’s possible the Sooners were saving up for the Seminoles, but I also remember a recent game where FSU travelled west as an underdog and came up big against BYU. I like the Seminoles to at least cover, if not win outright.

Miami (+8.5) at Ohio State – I normally don’t like picking Ohio State, but this team does seem to have turned a corner. I think that the Buckeyes will win and cover.


  1. I'll try to do a little better than 7-7 this week with these picks:

    Auburn (-2): As I mentioned in the preview, a 2 point line is the only one I couldn't pick. I too hesitantly take Auburn.

    Georgia (+3.5): I would have figured Georgia to be the better team, not a 3.5 point underdog. Huh?

    USF (+15): Florida showed last week that a Tebow-less team is not really the same.

    Vanderbilt (+9.5): This game is always close, just like last year (if I remember correctly). LSU showed last week they can implode down the stretch.

    Penn St. (+12): I don't think Penn St. will win, but I think they might be able to keep it close. This is surely the marquee game of the week.

    Arkansas (-34): Legit.

    Oregon (-12): Oregon hung 72 points last week, by far the most of any I-A team. Don't look for a repeat, but a two-touchdown win is not that inconceivable.

    Kentucky (-24.5): The Hilltoppers went down by 39 to Nebraska, and Kentucky showed they can play some offense, despite only putting 23 up on Louisville.

    Ole Miss (-20.5): I think last week's shocker is enough to rev up the Rebs.

    Florida St. (+7.5): I'm surprised, given that Oklahoma only won by a touchdown. Ponder seems solid this year.

    Miami (+8.5): Only because I think Miami can keep it close AND I hate Ohio State.

  2. Georgia (+3.5) at South Carolina, 12:00 ET / 11:00 CT, ESPN2 – I go with Georgia as South Carolina seems to always struggle with the dawgs.

    USF (+15) at Florida, 12:21 ET / 11:21 CT, SEC Network – I'll go with Florida to win and cover. I bet they practiced the center/quarterback exchange a little bit this week.

    LSU (-9.5) at Vanderbilt, 7:00 ET / 6:00 CT, ESPNU – I'll go with LSU to win and cover mainly because vandy is horrible and probably would have lost to UNC's scout team

    Penn State (+12) at Alabama, 7:00 ET / 6:00 CT, ESPN – Alabama makes a statement and definitely wins and covers against Joe Pa and his inexperienced qb

    UL-Monroe (+34) at Arkansas, 7:00 ET / 6:00 CT, FSN South – Hogs win and cover

    Oregon (-12) at Tennessee, 7:00 ET / 6:00 CT, ESPN2 – I dont know if the vols will win, but they will cover. Hopefully UT can pull the upset.

    Western Kentucky (+24.5) at Kentucky, 7:30 ET / 6:30 CT, CSS –UK wins and covers.

    Ole Miss (-20.5) at Tulane, 9:00 ET / 8:00 CT, ESPN2 – I don't think ole miss covers, Tulane probably wont win but I think last week may have exposed Mississippi

    Bonus Picks:

    Florida State (+7.5) at Oklahoma – I'll go with FSU mainly because oklahoma did not look too great last week

    Miami (+8.5) at Ohio State – I'll go with Ohio State to win and cover, but I hope can pull off an upset