Thursday, September 2, 2010

Picks - Week 1

Leave your picks in the comments.

Southern Miss (+13.5) at South Carolina, 7:30 PM Eastern, ESPN – the first game of the 2010 season (GET EXCITED!!11!). Don’t get me wrong, SC wins and the game won’t really be in doubt. But there’s a lot of distance between winning and winning by 2 TDs. Given: (1) Spurrier’s love-hate (minus the love) relationship with his starting (?) QB; (2) SC not wanting to show much ahead of next week’s showdown with Georgia; and (3) the offense-free 2009 Thursday night opening game crapfest between SC and NC State – I just can’t pull the trigger on SC with this line. I’ll take the Eagles and the points.


Miami (OH) (+36.5) at Florida, 12:00 PM Eastern, ESPN – This game against Zook’s alma mater was scheduled when he was still the coach in Gainesville. I think there’s some pressure for UF to run up the score to show off their shiny new QB and raise their pre-season rankings a bit. This is a huge line, but Meyer seems to generally beat up on cupcakes, so I’ll take the Gators to cover.

UL-Lafayette (+28.5) at Georgia, 12:21 PM Eastern, SEC Network – See UF/Miami analysis above. UGA will want to let their young QB get some real experience ahead of the SC tilt next week. UGA probably also feels disrespected by being lumped in with SC, Ark, Aub, LSU and the other teams kind of lumped together at the middle rung of the SEC. Bulldogs playing for respect and to get their coach off the hot seat. They cover.

Kentucky (-3) at Louisville, 3:30 PM Eastern, ABC – Any team with a first-year coach is dangerous and unpredictable. UK doesn’t quite fit in that category because Joker’s been on staff as the coach-in-waiting for a while. Louisville, where Kragthorpe left the cupboard very bare, brings in much-heralded Florida DC Charlie Strong as their new head coach. Ordinarily I’d pick UK here without a second thought. I’m going with my first instinct and picking the ‘Cats, but Strong in his first game of his first year makes me nervous about it.

Jacksonville State at Ole Miss, 3:30 PM Eastern, CSS – No line = no worries. Masoli-free Rebs still romp.

UT-Martin at Tennessee, 6:00 PM Eastern, PPV – I’m not sure if there’s no line because this game is “off” or “pick-em.” I kid (maybe). Cherish this win, Vol fans.

Arkansas State (+31) at Auburn, 7:00 PM Eastern, FSN South – I don’t see Auburn trying to run up the score with a quick turnaround for next Thursday’s game against in Starkville. Plus, I’m not sure Auburn’s D can shut anyone down to the extent they can beat someone by 31. I’ll take Ark State and the points.

San Jose State (+37.5) at Alabama, 7:00 PM Eastern, PPV – Bama will not just get their back-ups in early, thanks to a knee scope on Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, the backup RB, Trent Richardson, will start. SJSU is ba-a-a-a-ad, but a 6 TD spread is a lot. Flip a coin. I’ll take Bama, ‘cause the backups are pretty good.

Tennessee Tech at Arkansas, 7:00 PM Eastern, PPV – No line = no worries. Maybe if Tech were coached by the non-Watson Brown brother. No, not even then.

Memphis (+21.5) at Mississippi State, 7:00 PM Eastern, ESPNU – Dear Bulldogs, Schadenfreude and Glass Houses do not mix. Before you take too much pleasure in a certain Ole Miss QB’s apparent ineligibility, bear in mind that the only reason State doesn’t have its own laptop-thievin’ signal caller is because they were the runners-up in the battles for the services of both Masoli and Newton. As for the game, um, does Memphis still have a football program? Bulldogs cover.

Northwestern (-4.5) at Vanderbilt, 7:30 PM Eastern, CSS – I don’t care how “folksy” and full of “down home charm” your new coach is, the Purple Wildcats will win nerd-bowl 2010.

LSU (-6.5) vs. North Carolina, 8:00 PM Eastern, ABC – Wow, this line went from 3 to 6.5 today, presumably based on rumors that lots of UNC players will be ineligible. Buy the Tigers now, before this line gets any higher. A more risky bet might be taking the under on current number of expected UNC player suspensions (16 per ESPN’s Joe Schad).


UConn (+3) at Michigan – Michigan is a mess right now and Uconn is pretty good. Losing this game would send the wolverines into a season-long tailspin with RichRod gone before November. This pick is more hope than prediction, Go Huskies!

Boise State (-2) vs. Virginia Tech – Speaking of picks borne out of hope, the popular pick of the Hokies in this game I think is largely from media people who don’t want a season-long debate over whether an undefeated non-BCS conf team “deserves” to be in the NC game. I think BSU will outscore VaTech in this (with all due respect to Oregon State) one game season for the Broncos.


  1. When I saw the Miami-Fla line, I wasn't entirely shocked. Then I saw the "OH" designation. I still like the Alligators to cover.

  2. Picks, again? Hooray! What better way to say "I don't know much about football, guys."

    South Carolina (-13.5): Every year I think Spurrier is ready to show how dominant he can be. I think tonight he may just show that, even if it is against Southern Miss.

    Florida (-36.5): Even though Florida's QB is...wait, I know, whatever. It's the RedHawks, and they don't have "Big" Ben "That's what she said" Roethlisberger.

    Georgia (-28.5): The only way the Ragin' Cajuns are in this one is if they are coached by Farmer Fran.

    Kentucky (-3): Louisville hasn't been the same since Petrino left, and Kentucky seems on the perpetual cusp.

    Ole Miss (+0): Yes, I think Ole Miss will win outright.

    Tennessee (+0): Even if they are wearing Auburn's hand-me-down uniforms, UT-Martin won't be able to handle Rocky Top.

    Auburn (-31.5): As I mentioned in the preview, I thin this line is close. I'll take Auburn, but I'm not confident.

    Alabama (-37.5): Without Mark Ingram, Alabama may even play better (I'm just not convinced on him yet after last year's game against Auburn).

    Arkansas (+0): Mallett shows off, but hopefully doesn't overthrow his receivers.

    Memphis (+21.5): I know I always get burned on this one, but I'll take Memphis to block.

    Northwestern (-4.5): After the nailbiter in the bowl game last year, I like Northwestern's odds here. Sorry Vandy.

    LSU (-6.5): Although UNC has been a pretty good team of late, I too saw that a lot of their players will probably be out, so I like the Purple Tigers in this one.

    UConn (+3): Really? Michigan hasn't had anything since Carr was ousted.

    Boise St. (-2): There was a story on Yahoo this week about how people hated Boise St. I don't know who they were talking about; I love the Broncos and their blue field. Too bad the game is on a regular green one.

  3. "I'm just not really convinced on him yet after last year's game against Auburn"...really?

    Ingram is a great back, and true, I think Richardson will be better than Ingram, but with the performance Ingram had last year how could you not be convinced? Albeit, to say that Ingram will be out a couple weeks is not that big of a deal when you can plug in Richardson; the drop off may come with Lacy and Goode. Lacy has improved and appears to have won the "Roy" position, so we'll see how he goes!

  4. Yo, Lumps:

    16 carries, 30 yards...Really. I'm just saying I think Richardson is a better back, and it appears you agree with me.

  5. I guess I'll be an SEC homer this week.

    Miami (OH) (+36.5) at Florida: Florida wins and covers

    UL-Lafayette (+28.5) at Georgia: georgia covers

    Kentucky (-3) at Louisville: UKy covers

    Jacksonville State at Ole Miss: Rebels cover

    UT-Martin at Tennessee: Vols

    Arkansas State (+31) at Auburn: Auburn covers

    San Jose State (+37.5) at Alabama: Bama covers

    Tennessee Tech at Arkansas: Arkansas covers

    Memphis (+21.5) at Mississippi State: Bulldogs cover

    Northwestern (-4.5) at Vanderbilt: Vandy covers

    LSU (-6.5) vs. North Carolina: LSU covers


    UConn (+3) at Michigan: Michigan wins easily

    Boise State (-2) vs. Virginia Tech: Va Tech wins and covers

  6. Brocktoon: what I'm saying is Ingram had a horrific game against y'all, but take a look at the season as a whole, very good numbers...but ok, I agree with you, lol!