Picks - Week 1

Leave your picks in the comments.

THURSDAY, SEPT. 2
Southern Miss (+13.5) at South Carolina, 7:30 PM Eastern, ESPN – the first game of the 2010 season (GET EXCITED!!11!). Don’t get me wrong, SC wins and the game won’t really be in doubt. But there’s a lot of distance between winning and winning by 2 TDs. Given: (1) Spurrier’s love-hate (minus the love) relationship with his starting (?) QB; (2) SC not wanting to show much ahead of next week’s showdown with Georgia; and (3) the offense-free 2009 Thursday night opening game crapfest between SC and NC State – I just can’t pull the trigger on SC with this line. I’ll take the Eagles and the points.

SATURDAY, SEPT. 4

Miami (OH) (+36.5) at Florida, 12:00 PM Eastern, ESPN – This game against Zook’s alma mater was scheduled when he was still the coach in Gainesville. I think there’s some pressure for UF to run up the score to show off their shiny new QB and raise their pre-season rankings a bit. This is a huge line, but Meyer seems to generally beat up on cupcakes, so I’ll take the Gators to cover.

UL-Lafayette (+28.5) at Georgia, 12:21 PM Eastern, SEC Network – See UF/Miami analysis above. UGA will want to let their young QB get some real experience ahead of the SC tilt next week. UGA probably also feels disrespected by being lumped in with SC, Ark, Aub, LSU and the other teams kind of lumped together at the middle rung of the SEC. Bulldogs playing for respect and to get their coach off the hot seat. They cover.

Kentucky (-3) at Louisville, 3:30 PM Eastern, ABC – Any team with a first-year coach is dangerous and unpredictable. UK doesn’t quite fit in that category because Joker’s been on staff as the coach-in-waiting for a while. Louisville, where Kragthorpe left the cupboard very bare, brings in much-heralded Florida DC Charlie Strong as their new head coach. Ordinarily I’d pick UK here without a second thought. I’m going with my first instinct and picking the ‘Cats, but Strong in his first game of his first year makes me nervous about it.

Jacksonville State at Ole Miss, 3:30 PM Eastern, CSS – No line = no worries. Masoli-free Rebs still romp.

UT-Martin at Tennessee, 6:00 PM Eastern, PPV – I’m not sure if there’s no line because this game is “off” or “pick-em.” I kid (maybe). Cherish this win, Vol fans.

Arkansas State (+31) at Auburn, 7:00 PM Eastern, FSN South – I don’t see Auburn trying to run up the score with a quick turnaround for next Thursday’s game against in Starkville. Plus, I’m not sure Auburn’s D can shut anyone down to the extent they can beat someone by 31. I’ll take Ark State and the points.

San Jose State (+37.5) at Alabama, 7:00 PM Eastern, PPV – Bama will not just get their back-ups in early, thanks to a knee scope on Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, the backup RB, Trent Richardson, will start. SJSU is ba-a-a-a-ad, but a 6 TD spread is a lot. Flip a coin. I’ll take Bama, ‘cause the backups are pretty good.

Tennessee Tech at Arkansas, 7:00 PM Eastern, PPV – No line = no worries. Maybe if Tech were coached by the non-Watson Brown brother. No, not even then.

Memphis (+21.5) at Mississippi State, 7:00 PM Eastern, ESPNU – Dear Bulldogs, Schadenfreude and Glass Houses do not mix. Before you take too much pleasure in a certain Ole Miss QB’s apparent ineligibility, bear in mind that the only reason State doesn’t have its own laptop-thievin’ signal caller is because they were the runners-up in the battles for the services of both Masoli and Newton. As for the game, um, does Memphis still have a football program? Bulldogs cover.

Northwestern (-4.5) at Vanderbilt, 7:30 PM Eastern, CSS – I don’t care how “folksy” and full of “down home charm” your new coach is, the Purple Wildcats will win nerd-bowl 2010.

LSU (-6.5) vs. North Carolina, 8:00 PM Eastern, ABC – Wow, this line went from 3 to 6.5 today, presumably based on rumors that lots of UNC players will be ineligible. Buy the Tigers now, before this line gets any higher. A more risky bet might be taking the under on current number of expected UNC player suspensions (16 per ESPN’s Joe Schad).

BONUS PICKS:

UConn (+3) at Michigan – Michigan is a mess right now and Uconn is pretty good. Losing this game would send the wolverines into a season-long tailspin with RichRod gone before November. This pick is more hope than prediction, Go Huskies!

Boise State (-2) vs. Virginia Tech – Speaking of picks borne out of hope, the popular pick of the Hokies in this game I think is largely from media people who don’t want a season-long debate over whether an undefeated non-BCS conf team “deserves” to be in the NC game. I think BSU will outscore VaTech in this (with all due respect to Oregon State) one game season for the Broncos.

2010: The Year We Make Contact

College football season officially begins tonight with several games on the docket for a Thursday night. For Auburn fans, the season begins Saturday with the traditional cupcake team from a non-major conference--the Red Wolves of Arkansas State, a team who, according to ESPN, averaged just 330 yards of offense per game in '09. For Auburn fans, I'm sure that several questions come to mind:

1) Will Cameron Newton live up to the hype as QB?

2) Who will step up and replace Ben Tate as the workhorse on the ground?

3) Will Gene Chizik improve on last year's record or settle for mediocrity?

After Alabama's national championship last year, Auburn fans are somewhat deflated but not much. Alabama's fans have been gracious toward Auburn's fans about the NC (at least the ones I've talked to), but I'm sure that Auburn would like to hold that spotlight soon also. While I think that is an incredible long shot and likely not to happen this year, it certainly gives Auburn a target at which to aim.

Auburn is a favorite in Saturday's game, hovering around 31 points with a 58 points over/under. I'm not sure about the 31 points (I feel like that's a pretty close line), but I think the combined output will definitely exceed 58. If I had to make a prediction (which I'm sure you guys would like), I'll go with Auburn 49, Arkansas State 17 (I guess I'll go with that line).

If you aren't going to the Plains this weekend, the game is on at 6 pm CST on FSN South.

War Eagle!

Countdown to Gamecock Kickoff

As the Gamecocks try to focus on what may be their best chance to really make some noise in the SEC East in many years, unfortunately some of that focus has shifted from the football field to the Whitney Hotel. The reason for the shift of attention is simple: a few players shifted their residence to the Whitney over the summer. Any math major out there can tell you the housing allowance for players is not enough to support a permanent hotel room.
Anyways, on to the football field (which is a place that some of those players may not see for a while), Southern Mississippi has had this game circled on their schedule for months. So. Miss has been open about their belief that this season will start with a win. Meanwhile, there are nothing but question marks among the SEC East power programs. The Gamecocks, return their QB, top RBs and WRs, and even a few studs on the defensive side of the ball. Add onto that a freshman 5 star running back, who may make Lattimore a household name, and hopes are high.
ESPN says all of this may amount to a must win situation for The Visor. I don't buy all of that, but with Georgia waiting in the wings, a loss on national TV on Thursday would reverse all of the excitement that started with the Gamecock Baseball team's national championship run.
CB Stephon Gilmore is my pick for player of the game, and naturally, I pick the Gamecocks to start strong with a victory tonight in Columbia.

Did anyone else notice it's almost football season?

Well, we noticed.  We took a little hiatus in the offseason, and fall blogger training camp two-a-days are killing us.  The Championship-caliber blogging you've come to expect will commence soon with some preview posts for the upcoming season.  The SEC schedule kicks off on Thursday September 2 with Southern Miss at South Carolina.

Bowl Breakdown: Accountability Edition

So a month ago I made score predictions for all of the bowl games. Now, unlike Corso, Herbstreit, and all of the other people who make predictions but never follow up on how well (or poorly) they did, I will stand behind my predictions and own up to how well (or poorly) I did. I'll let you, the reader, decide on my job performance.

I did correctly pick 23 winners out of 34 (67.6%). I was only picking winners, not against the spread. However, I will be analyzing other statistics below based on how close I was to actual scores for teams, games, and margins of victory.

I will be comparing my predictions to the actual results in three ways: 1) I will compare the score I predicted for each team to their actual score in the bowl game (the actual score will be their score at the end of regulation, since overtimes tend to inflate the scores); 2) I will compare the total points scored by both teams (at the end of regulation) to the actual total points scored by both teams; and 3) I will compare the margin of victory I predicted for each game to the actual margin of victory, this time using scores at the end of overtime and taking into consideration which team won.

Score Comparisons (by team, 68 total):
Team scores predicted correctly: 5 (UCF, Boston College, Oklahoma, LSU, Texas)
Team scores off by 1: 4 (Southern Miss, Temple, Bowling Green, Penn State)
Team scores off by 2: 5 (California, Marshall, Idaho, Ohio State, Connecticut)
Team scores off by 3: 4 (Stanford, West Virginia, South Florida, Texas Tech)
Team scores off by 4: 1 (Michigan State)
Team scores off by 5: 2 (Iowa State, Florida State)
Team scores off by 6: 4 (Fresno State, UCLA, Navy, Minnesota)
Team scores off by 7: 4 (USC, Northern Illinois, Iowa, Central Michigan)
Team scores off by 8: 2 (Kentucky, Wisconsin)
Total number of team scores off by 1 score: 31

Team scores off by 2 scores (9-16 points): 24 (Wyoming [11], BYU [13], Oregon State [10], Utah [10], SMU [10], Ohio [14], North Carolina [10], Clemson [10], Georgia [10], Texas A&M [11], Nebraska [12], Air Force [16], Missouri [14], Virginia Tech [11], Tennessee [10], Auburn [11], Northwestern [12], Oregon [14], Florida [16], Cincinnati [10], Ole Miss [10], East Carolina [14], Troy [11], Alabama [13])

Team scores off by more than 2 scores (17+ points): 13 (Rutgers [18], MTSU [22], Nevada [42], Pittsburgh [22], Miami [17], Arizona [27], Houston [28], South Carolina [17], Oklahoma State [18], Arkansas [21], Boise State [27], TCU [35], Georgia Tech [31])


Score Comparisons (by game, 34 total):
Total scores off by 1 score (8 points or less): 14 (Wyoming-Fresno State [5], BYU-Oregon State [3], USC-Boston College [7], Georgia-Texas A&M [1], UCLA-Temple [7], Idaho-Bowling Green [1], Oklahoma-Stanford [3], Navy-Missouri [8], Virginia Tech-Tennessee [1], Florida State-West Virginia [2], Penn State-LSU [1], Florida-Cincinnati [6], South Florida-Northern Illinois [4], Texas Tech-Michigan State [7])

Total scores off by 2 scores (9-16 points): 7 (Utah-California [12], Marshall-Ohio [16], Nebraska-Arizona [15], Air Force-Houston [12], Iowa State-Minnesota [11], Ohio State-Oregon [12], Alabama-Texas [13])

Total scores off by 3 scores (17-24 points): 7 (Rutgers-UCF [18], MTSU-Southern Miss [23], Clemson-Kentucky [18], Auburn-Northwestern [23], Connecticut-South Carolina [19], Iowa-Georgia Tech [24], Central Michigan-Troy [18])

Total scores off by 4 scores (25-32 points): 4 (SMU-Nevada [32], Pittsburgh-North Carolina [32], Wisconsin-Miami [25], Ole Miss-Oklahoma State [28])

Total scores off by more than 4 scores (33+ points): 2 (Arkansas-East Carolina [35], Boise State-TCU [62])


Margin Comparisons (by game, 34 total):
Margin off by 1 score (8 points or less): 15 (Utah-California [8], USC-Boston College [7], Clemson-Kentucky [2], UCLA-Temple [5], Idaho-Bowling Green [3], Oklahoma-Stanford [3], Iowa State-Minnesota [1], Auburn-Northwestern [2], Florida State-West Virginia [8], Penn State-LSU [1], Ole Miss-Oklahoma State [8], Arkansas-East Carolina [4], Texas Tech-Michigan State [1], Boise State-TCU [8], Central Michigan-Troy [1])

Margin off by 2 scores (9-16 points): 7 (Marshall-Ohio [12], Pittsburgh-North Carolina [12], Wisconsin-Miami [9], Ohio State-Oregon [16], South Florida-Northern Illinois [10], Connecticut-South Carolina [15], Alabama-Texas [13])

Margin off by 3 scores (17-24 points): 7 (Wyoming-Fresno State [24], Rutgers-UCF [18], MTSU-Southern Miss [21], BYU-Oregon State [23], Georgia-Texas A&M [21], Navy-Missouri [20], Virginia Tech-Tennessee [21])

Margin off by 4 scores (25-32 points): 1 (Florida-Cincinnati [26])

Margin off by more than 4 scores (33+ points): 4 (SMU-Nevada [52], Nebraska-Arizona [39], Air Force-Houston [44], Iowa-Georgia Tech [38])


If there are other statistics you'd like to see, please post in the comments section.

Auburn-Northwestern Preview

Auburn takes on Northwestern tomorrow in the Outback Bowl, 11 AM ET, on ESPN. I'm upbeat about the game, and I think Auburn will win, but there will be some questions:

1) Will Auburn's sometimes-missing offense show up?

2) Will Northwestern's defense play like they have played this year?

3) Will the players be awake for the early morning game? Auburn had trouble with this earlier in the year.

Rather than write up a lot of the statistics matching up the teams, I direct you to this article that does just that. Auburn looks like the team to beat, but of course, several teams who have already lost looked like the team to beat (Fresno State, Nevada, Houston). All I can say is I hope for a good showing for Auburn and a win, no matter by how many points. I earlier predicted that Auburn would win, 24-23. I will now append to predict one more touchdown for Auburn and a 31-23 win.

War Eagle!

Mike Leach: The OTHER Position

So I'm sure you've heard by now that Mike Leach was fired yesterday as the head coach of the Texas Tech Red Raiders. What you may not have heard was anyone who was on his side. If you watched ESPN recently, all you heard were things like Mark May saying Leach deserved to be fired. Lou Holtz was a little less blunt and to-the-point, but he leaned the same way. And, of course, Craig James was saying he didn't ask that Leach was fired, which I do believe. James did say he wanted for son to be protected, but I'm not sure he was in any danger really.

I say, of course May and Holtz are going to agree with the firing; are they really going to say that was the wrong move? That would make those office Christmas parties a little awkward with James. I think that a few things don't add up:

According to ESPN, Texas Tech was going to owe Leach a lump sum of $800,000 as long as he was the coach as of today; with the firing, they do not owe him the money. Second, several emails were sent to Texas Tech, portraying Adam James as an entitlement kid (just look at his picture, he certainly looks the part) with a bad attitude and poor work ethic. Third, was the university actually looking to fire Leach before all of this came out? I know they had a rift about Leach looking at other jobs, but he was the winningest coach in the history of the university. Fourth, the university only took two days to fire Leach, not even investigating the claims. Fifth, doctors made the statement that what Leach did to James didn't harm him in any way.

The funny thing in all of this is that, in my opinion, Adam James looks like the bad guy here. He thought he deserved more playing time, but ironically only Mike Leach wanted to give him a scholarship (the scholarship to Texas Tech was the only one he received, and the position coach said he wasn't Division I material). His poor work ethic wasn't indicative of someone who wanted to put in the time and effort to make himself better, again presumably because of his entitlement air.

Another funny thing is that Texas Tech isn't going to get a better coach than they had in Leach. For not having played football in college, Leach is a genius on the offensive side of the ball. It did come out that Tommy Tuberville was interested in the job, and that may be a good fit for the university. Lincoln Riley also did an almost 180 (we'll say 175), saying that he would be there for James as the coach, but stopped short of saying he wanted him back next year.

I was pulling for Texas Tech in the game against Michigan State, but I think I'll back the Spartans now. I think Texas Tech was in the wrong, and I think they'll pay dearly for it in the form of a lawsuit Leach and his attorney were filing very soon.

Ridiculous Bowl Game Names & Lofty Claims

Are you tired of all the corporate sponsors for bowl games? Me too. Whatever happened to just the Liberty Bowl or the Peach Bowl or the Poulan Weedeater Bowl (OK, that last one I guess falls under being a corporate sponsor, but c'mon, it's Poulan.)? Here is a good story on those ridiculous titles. It is funny that at least three games are being sponsored by groups who took federal bailout money (GMAC, two games sponsored by Citi). If we're going to go that route, I'd personally like to see the Bernie Madoff Bowl in the future.

Here's another one. I'm sure if you're here in Birmingham (or anywhere else in the state) that you've seen Academy Sports has signs saying they'll open right after Alabama's national championship victory. Well over in Texas, they're doing the same thing for the Longhorns - see Academy's website for information on store openings. Now, I'm an Auburn fan AND I think Alabama will win. But what if Alabama doesn't win? Will Academy not open its doors until they do win a national championship? That could take years. The same for Texas. So I guess, either way, a lot of Academy stores will be closed indefinitely. Judging from the list of stores, I think Academy wants Texas to win, they have many more stores in their list than Alabama does. (Please read with sarcasm.)

Bowl Update

I will be editing my previous post on bowl predictions throughout the bowl season with final scores and records, so keep checking it out to see how I do (which, by the way, will be terrible, I'm sure).

Hunt For The Heisman Trophy

The Heisman Trophy is to be awarded this Saturday night (8 PM ET, ESPN). Five finalists were invited to New York for the presentation at the Nokia Theater: Alabama's Mark Ingram, Florida's Tim Tebow, Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh, Stanford's Toby Gerhart, and Texas's Colt McCoy.

The Heisman Trophy is awarded to college football's "most outstanding player", whatever that means. Given that the Maxwell Award is also awarded to the most outstanding player, I'm not sure what the difference is. Too many awards, too few deserving players.

I'm not sure I would have selected those five. If I were given the opportunity to select four players to come to New York, as is usually the case, here are the four I would have selected:

1) Case Keenum - Without Keenum, Houston has nothing. He had two games where the attempted 75 or more passes. Consequently, the ground game was pretty much nonexistent. Keenum had almost 1600 more passing yards than 2nd place Levi Brown of Troy. He also had 43 touchdown passes (4 more than Boise State's Kellen Moore) against only 9 interceptions. It's hard to deny how good this guy is, and it's a shame that Houston didn't do even better this year.

2) Toby Gerhart - Although Andrew Luck is also a credit to Stanford's impressive year, Gerhart is the bruising back that contributed most to their success. He led the nation with over 1700 yards rushing, and he also had 26 touchdowns on the ground. He had three games with over 200 yards rushing (200 on 27 carries against Washington, 223 against Oregon on 38 carries, and 205 on 29 carries against Notre Dame) and only two games where he was held to under 100 yards rushing (82 on 17 carries against Wake Forest and 96 on 20 carries against Oregon State). And he's a white running back at that.

3) Kellen Moore - Moore leads the nation in passer rating (167.3) and is second in passing touchdowns (39). He only had 3 interceptions, the least of everyday quarterbacks, and he had over 3300 yards passing. Moore was efficient also, completing 63% of his passes. Watching this guy play, you know Boise State is going to dominate for two more years as he is only a sophomore.

4) Golden Tate - I know this is a longshot, and since Notre Dame went 6-6, he wouldn't get the consideration, but his 93 catches for just shy of 1500 yards, along with 15 receiving touchdowns, is staggering. Granted I don't like Notre Dame, Tate made some impressive catches this year every time I saw them play. He was Clausen's go-to guy, much like Terry Beasley was for Pat Sullivan.

Here's why I wouldn't have invited the players who were invited:

1) Colt McCoy - 12 interceptions, 4 games under 200 yards passing

2) Tim Tebow - 2400 yards passing, lost big in SEC championship game, lackluster compared to earlier seasons

3) Mark Ingram - according to many Bama fans, not even the best running back on the team; in my opinion, not the best player on the team (Greg McElroy)

4) Ndamukong Suh - 12 sacks is pretty good, but only 82 tackles (I guess he wouldn't get as many tackles as linebackers)

I'd like to see Gerhart win it, but I doubt it would happen. Mark Ingram seems to be getting a lot of hype, but his 30 yards against Auburn on 16 carries takes it from him. McCoy may win it on his career, and many voters probably think it's his turn to win after Bradford and Tebow, which are both cop outs. I really can't believe Tebow is being invited this year, but this is also probably a traditional thing. Whoever wins, I hope that person does better than previous Heisman winners Reggie Bush, Jason White, Eric Crouch, Chris Weinke, Charlie Ward, Gino Torretta, etc.

Bowl Breakdown

I am again taking on the daunting challenge of analyzing a whole bunch of football in one sitting (see here and here for previous daunting challenges). As everyone knows, the bowls were finalized yesterday, and there is so much college football out there, it's like a whole new season began today. With that in mind, here's a breakdown of the entire bowl season, with some analysis and selections:

Saturday, December 19:
New Mexico Bowl (4:30 PM ET): Fresno State vs. Wyoming - Look for Fresno, who isn't afraid of anyone, to show Wyoming that although you may be better than in years past, you're still Wyoming. Prediction: Fresno State 34, Wyoming 17. (Actual: Wyoming 35, Fresno State 28 (OT) - Record: 0-1)

St. Petersburg Bowl (8:00 PM ET): UCF vs. Rutgers - Both of these teams have been up and down this year, and this feels like a pretty even matchup. Most of UCF's losses have come to highly ranked teams, but they do have a pretty bad pass defense, and Rutgers likes to toss the ball. Rutgers lost to Syracuse, but I like them here. Prediction: Rutgers 27, UCF 24. (Actual: Rutgers 45, UCF 24 - Record: 1-1)

Sunday, December 20:
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (8:30 PM ET): Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee State - Sure, MTSU is 9-3, but if you look at their schedule, they lost to opponents in BCS conferences (except Maryland, who had a terrible season, and it was only a 1-point win). With the exception of a loss to UAB, Southern Miss's losses were by 7 points or less. Prediction: Southern Miss 31, MTSU 20. (Actual: MTSU 42, Southern Miss 32 - Record: 1-2)

Tuesday, December 22:
Maaco Bowl Las Vegas (8:00 PM ET): Oregon State vs. BYU - This feels like it should be a game later in the bowl season. Oregon State played Oregon down to the wire for the Pac-10 championship, and BYU's only losses were to Florida State early in the season and TCU, who should be playing for a national championship against Alabama. Prediction: BYU 31, Oregon State 30. (Actual: BYU 44, Oregon State 20 - Record: 2-2)

Wednesday, December 23:
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Utah vs. California - Um, which California team is going to show up - the one that lost to Washington, Oregon, and USC by 27-39 points or the one or the one that beat Stanford and Arizona by 7 or less? On the flipside, Utah's wins this year have been by just a little generally. Prediction: Utah 27, California 25. (Actual: Utah 37, California 27 - Record: 3-2)

Thursday, December 24:
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Nevada vs. SMU - All I'm going to say is SMU lost to Washington State, which was their only win. Oh yeah, Nevada's offense is really good (OK, that's two things). Prediction: Nevada 52, SMU 35. (Actual: SMU 45, Nevada 10 - Record: 3-3)

Saturday, December 26:
Little Caesar's Bowl (1:00 PM ET): Marshall vs. Ohio - I'm surprised Marshall even got a bowl game at 6-6. Solich's Ohio team has been very good this year, keeping games tight with Connecticut and Tennessee. Prediction: Ohio 31, Marshall 23. (Actual: Marshall 21, Ohio 17 - Record: 3-4)

Meineke Car Care Bowl (4:30 PM ET): Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina - It's a shame that Pitt isn't playing around Jan. 1, but at least they drew an ACC team, which means they will probably get the win. North Carolina beat Virginia Tech and Miami, but they lost to NC State, Virginia, and Florida State (which is because of the ACC default rule where the worse team wins). Prediction: Pittsburgh 41, North Carolina 27. (Actual: Pittsburgh 19, North Carolina 17 - Record: 4-4)

Emerald Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Boston College vs. USC - USC took a monumental tumble this year, and it shows by their game being on 12/26. I'm not sure Boston College was relevant this year, but then again, neither was USC. The differences between the two teams: USC is still ranked because of their media darling status and the bowl is in their home state. Prediction: USC 17, Boston College 13. (Actual: USC 24, Boston College 13 - Record: 5-4) (Note: The score was as I predicted until about 12 minutes left in the game when USC scored one more touchdown.)

Sunday, December 27:
Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl (8:30 PM ET): Kentucky vs. Clemson - Clemson hung right in there against Georgia Tech, and Spiller, if he has a good game, will prove too much for Kentucky. Prediction: Clemson 31, Kentucky 21. (Actual: Clemson 21, Kentucky 13 - Record: 6-4)

Monday, December 28:
Advocare V100 Independence Bowl (5:00 PM ET): Texas A&M vs. Georgia - Two Jekyll & Hyde teams meet up for this one. Texas A&M has played better recently than earlier in the year, and Georgia is on the upswing after lulling in the middle of the season. This one also feels close. Prediction: Georgia 34, Texas A&M 31. (Actual: Georgia 44, Texas A&M 20 - Record: 7-4)

Tuesday, December 29:
Eaglebank Bowl (4:30 PM ET): UCLA vs. Temple - Temple ran off 9 wins in a row in the middle of their season, with the highlight in that stretch a win over Navy, 27-24. Meanwhile, UCLA started off 3-0 before imploding. Their 3-1 stretch over the last four games got them to 6-6. However, in Pac-10 vs. MAC, I'll have to go with the BCS team. Prediction: UCLA 24, Temple 20. (Actual: UCLA 30, Temple 21 - Record: 8-4)

Champs Sports Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Miami vs. Wisconsin - Miami looked solid in their last game against South Florida, and Wisconsin hasn't been a pushover this year, losing three to solid (at the time) Big Ten teams. Prediction: Miami 31, Wisconsin 28. (Actual: Wisconsin 20, Miami 14 - Record: 8-5)

Wednesday, December 30:
Roady's Humanitarian Bowl (4:30 PM ET): Bowling Green vs. Idaho - Bowling Green has the momentum here, winning its last four and six of its last seven. Idaho, who started out 6-1, dropped 4 of its last 5. But the game's in Idaho. Prediction: Idaho 45, Bowling Green 41. (Actual: Idaho 43, Bowling Green 42 - Record: 9-5)

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Arizona vs. Nebraska - Thus far, this is the matchup to see. I thought Nebraska had pulled off the upset against Texas, and Arizona has played with the best of the Pac-10 this year. I wish I could call it a tie, but I think Arizona wins down the stretch. Prediction: Arizona 27, Nebraska 21. (Actual: Nebraska 33, Arizona 0 - Record: 9-6)

Thursday, December 31:
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl (12:00 PM ET): Houston vs. Air Force - Houston comes in hobbling from their loss to ECU in the C-USA championship game. Air Force has won the games they should this season, but they have also lost the games they should. Houston's defense won't stop Air Force's run game, and Case Keenum will have a field day passing, say 550 yards. Prediction: Houston 48, Air Force 31. (Actual: Air Force 47, Houston 20 - Record: 9-7)

Brut Sun Bowl (2:00 PM ET): Oklahoma vs. Stanford - Toby Gerhart should win the Heisman, but he won't. Oklahoma shouldn't have blanked or beat Oklahoma State, but they did. Surprisingly close, I'll give this one to the Sooners. Prediction: Oklahoma 31, Stanford 30. (Actual: Oklahoma 31, Stanford 27 - Record: 10-7)

Texas Bowl (3:30 PM ET): Navy vs. Missouri - All of Navy's games, wins or losses, have been tight this year, and Missouri has won 4 of its last 5. I like the ground attack of Navy to take this one. Prediction: Navy 29, Missouri 27. (Actual: Navy 35, Missouri 13 - Record: 11-7)

Insight Bowl (6:00 PM ET): Minnesota vs. Iowa State - This feels like a snoozer. In the few games I saw Minnesota play this season, they looked stagnant. Iowa State's results look like a mixed bag. So who wins? The more important question is: Who cares? Prediction: Iowa State 9, Minnesota 7. (Actual: Iowa State 14, Minnesota 13 - Record: 12-7)

Chick-Fil-A Bowl (7:30 PM ET): Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee - Now we're talking. On paper Virginia Tech takes this one easily. In reality, this could be a tight one. Tennessee has played well of late, but I still say that Virginia Tech had an outside shot at a BCS game. Prediction: Virginia Tech 26, Tennessee 24. (Actual: Virginia Tech 37, Tennessee 14 - Record: 13-7)

Friday, January 1:
Outback Bowl (11:00 AM ET): Northwestern vs. Auburn - For some reason, people like my brother think Northwestern is a pushover. Au contraire, mon frere (literally). Northwestern beat Iowa and Wisconsin despite being heavy underdogs. Auburn has shown signs of life, and hopefully they will continue in this way, playing for more than the 1st quarter. Prediction: Auburn 24, Northwestern 23. (Actual: Auburn 38, Northwestern 35 (OT) - Record: 14-7)

Konica Minolta Gator Bowl (1:00 PM ET): West Virginia vs. Florida State - Do you think the Florida State team will be up to win Bobby Bowden's last game at the helm? You better believe it! Florida State pulls the upset. Prediction: Florida State 28, West Virginia 24. (Actual: Florida State 33, West Virginia 21 - Record: 15-7)

Capital One Bowl (1:00 PM ET): Penn State vs. LSU - This seems like a decent matchup for this game. Penn State got snubbed for Iowa (yes, I know Iowa beat them, but Stanzi is out, and Iowa is a different team with Vandenburg in at QB). LSU barely survived against Arkansas after losing with a bone-headed decision by Les Miles. This game will be dominated by defense. Prediction: Penn State 20, LSU 17. (Actual: Penn State 19, LSU 17 - Record: 16-7)

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi (4:30 PM ET): Ohio State vs. Oregon - As much as I'd like to say Ohio State loses again, I'm not sure this one is so cut and dry. Oregon has played sub-par lately despite winning. Ohio State hasn't looked great either, despite winning. Two somewhat mediocre teams playing in the Rose Bowl. Prediction: Oregon 31, Ohio State 24. (Actual: Ohio State 26, Oregon 17 - Record: 16-8)

Allstate Sugar Bowl (8:30 PM ET): Florida vs. Cincinnati - This one looks like a good matchup also. Cincinnati has been winning by the skin of their teeth lately, especially in the final regular season game against Pittsburgh. Florida doesn't look so dominant after being humbled by Alabama. I think the Gators will have their hands full with a Cincinnati team with a legitimate claim to playing in the national championship game, but I think they'll prevail, only slightly. Prediction: Florida 35, Cincinnati 34. (Actual: Florida 51, Cincinnati 24 - Record: 17-8)

Saturday, January 2:
International Bowl (12:00 PM ET): South Florida vs. Northern Illinois - Northern Illinois hasn't played anyone, and South Florida has skidded since losing Matt Grothe at QB. You can sleep through this one. Prediction: South Florida 24, Northern Illinois 10. (Actual: South Florida 27, Northern Illinois 3 - Record: 18-8)

Papajohns.com Bowl (2:00 PM ET): South Carolina vs. Connecticut - High expectations were had for both of these teams at the beginning of the season. South Carolina imploded for the second half, salvaging the season with a win over rival Clemson. Connecticut played through adversity with the shooting death of Jasper Howard right after their homecoming game. With the game in Birmingham, South Carolina has an advantage and wins. Prediction: South Carolina 24, Connecticut 22. (Actual: Connecticut 20, South Carolina 7 - Record: 18-9)

AT&T Cotton Bowl (2:00 PM ET): Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss - This one also seems like an easy call for Oklahoma State. Both teams lost to their rivals during rivalry week, and both look like they have played better. Oklahoma State has desperately needed Dez Bryant, and Ole Miss has desperately needed Jevan Snead, although he has actually been playing. I think I'll go with the SEC on this one. Prediction: Ole Miss 31, Oklahoma State 25. (Actual: Ole Miss 21, Oklahoma State 7 - Record: 19-9)

AutoZone Liberty Bowl (5:30 PM ET): Arkansas vs. East Carolina - I underestimated East Carolina. They beat Houston bad in a game that few saw happening. Arkansas ran up a string of wins until Alex Tejada's missed field goal in OT game LSU the win. C-USA doesn't have the depth of even a mid-range SEC team. Prediction: Arkansas 38, East Carolina 31. (Actual: Arkansas 20, East Carolina 17 (OT) - Record: 20-9)

Valero Alamo Bowl (9:00 PM ET): Michigan State vs. Texas Tech - Michigan State has played OK, with an almost win over Iowa when Iowa was good. Texas Tech was edged out by Oklahoma State and Houston and has played like a much better team than their record reflects. Prediction: Texas Tech 38, Michigan State 27. (Actual: Texas Tech 41, Michigan State 31 - Record: 21-9)

Monday, January 4:
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Boise State vs. TCU - As much as I'm looking forward to watching this game, I think the BCS committee took the easy way out by making these two non-BCS conference teams play each other. I would much rather watch Boise State beat Oklahoma (2006-7) and Utah beat Alabama (2008-9) than watch those types of teams play each other. TCU, I think, has a legitimate claim to the title game, and I think if Boise State picked up some quality opponents, they'd have a better argument for themselves. The problem is, though, that no BCS teams want to play Boise State. I think this is another evenly matched game, and I don't really know who to go with. If I had to pick one, I think I'd take TCU. Prediction: TCU 45, Boise State 44. (Actual: Boise State 17, TCU 10 - Record: 21-10)

Tuesday, January 5:
FedEx Orange Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Iowa vs. Georgia Tech - Snore. Prediction: Georgia Tech 45, Iowa 17. (Actual: Iowa 24, Georgia Tech 14 - Record: 21-11)

Wednesday, January 6:
GMAC Bowl (7:00 PM ET): Central Michigan vs. Troy - This is virtually a home game for Troy, and they'll need it. Dan LeFevour is now the all-time I-A leader in touchdowns throwing, rushing, and receiving combined with 148. Yes, he caught a touchdown on a reverse against Northern Illinois in 2007. Troy can hang with teams from lesser conferences, but I think Central Michigan has the talent to win this one in Troy's backyard. Prediction: Central Michigan 27, Troy 23. (Actual: Central Michigan 44, Troy 41 (OT) - Record: 22-11)

Thursday, January 7:
Citi BCS National Championship Game (8:00 PM ET): Texas vs. Alabama - As much as it pains me to say, I think Alabama has the most well-rounded team in the nation. I though Greg McElroy was a question mark coming into the season, but he has proven to be the leader that Alabama needed. Texas, on the other hand, comes into the game limping but not defeated after a nailbiter victory over Nebraska. Texas doesn't have the running game, and making them one-dimensional is the key to an Alabama victory. However, you can't deny the McCoy-Shipley connection. Since 2002, the team ranked #2 has won the game every year except for after the 2004 season in which USC defeated Oklahoma. On the flipside, the SEC is 5-0 in BCS national championship games. This will be one of the tightest national championship games since the Ohio State double overtime win over Miami after the 2001 season. Prediction: Alabama 24, Texas 21. (Actual: Alabama 37, Texas 21 - Record: 23-11) (Note: This was the score with about 2 minutes left. Alabama scored one more touchdown, then piled on another when it was unneccesary.)

Holy War

Dueling religious imagery for your pre-game enjoyment.  Of course, Tebow is football Jesus, not Adam.  He's a devout Evangelical Christian, home schooled, does mission work (performs circumcisions) in the off-season, writes Bible verses on his gameday eye black.  And his coach was named after a Pope.

All we need is an image of Steve Spurrier descending from the top of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium with a "Fun 'N Gun" playbook inscribed on stone tablets.

As for Alabama, well, "There is No God but BEAR and SABAN is his Prophet."  A fanatical base that is well armed and prone to misogeny and domestic violence fervently seeking a return to imagined days of past glory.  You can understand why I won't be posting any images here.  Has Imam Finebaum issued a fatwa against the Gators yet?  Death to Florida!!

Bowl picture clears for Auburn

As reported earlier, Auburn accepted a bid to the Outback Bowl, 10 am on January 1, potentially playing against Wisconsin for the third time in a bowl game since 2003. Auburn should count itself lucky to get the best bowl game of predicted bowl games for the six SEC teams with 7-5 records (by the way, Auburn's record against these other five 7-5 teams is 1-3 with a win against Tennessee and losses against Kentucky, Georgia, and Arkansas...Auburn didn't play South Carolina).

This site has projected bowls and teams who have accepted bids to bowl games already. As of posting time, it appears six teams have accepted bids:

1) UCF, to the St. Petersburg Bowl (December 19)
2) SMU, to the Hawaii Bowl (December 24)
3) Navy, to the Texas Bowl (December 31)
4) Auburn, to the Outback Bowl (January 1)
5) Ole Miss, to the Cotton Bowl (January 2)
6) Oklahoma State, also to the Cotton Bowl (January 2)

Let the BCS discussion begin.

I know it's early, but it's really never inappropriate to discuss how the BCS system is ruining college football, not to mention that it never seems to get the correct two teams into the final game. Let's do a rundown, starting with the most recent:

2008 - Oklahoma gets in, despite that whole situation with Texas and Texas Tech, and a questionable decision to put them into the Big 12 title game, essentially locking them into that slot.

2007 - LSU gets in, despite the regular season loss to Arkansas at the end of the season. Georgia should be in, but gets snubbed since officials didn't want a team who didn't even play for their conference championship to play for a national championship. Results: Ohio State gets drubbed 38-24, Georgia beats Hawaii 41-10.

What do you think the next Uga should be?

I'm sure you've read, but with the passing of Uga VII a couple of weeks ago, what is the University of Georgia going to do? You might think that the university isn't sure, which is probably why PETA gave its suggestion for a suitable replacement. Is it just me, or are those guys crazy?

Rivalry Week - by the numbers

84 - Number of seconds #2 Alabama led Auburn on Friday.  It just happened to be the last 84 seconds.

1.5 - Mean number of college football legends in their last regular season game Saturday in Gainesville.  1 is Heisman winner Tim Tebow, who scored 5 TDs before leaving the game in the 4th quarter.  .5 is Bobby Bowden, who has about a 50/50 chance of returning as Florida State's head coach next season.

22 - The most yards on a single rush by both Dexter McCluster and Anthony Dixon on Saturday.  Both runs came on TD drives in the 2nd Quarter.  McCluster's 22 yard scamper was the first play of a 6-play 73-yard drive.  Dixon's run set up Mississippi State 1st and goal at the 4.  Here, the similarities end.  McCluster accounted for 82 of Ole Miss' 90 yards on the ground.  Miss State, on the other hand, rolled up 412 yards of offense (317 on the ground) in a 41-27 route of Ole Miss. 

9 - Number of points scored in 2 overtime games Saturday.  LSU kicked a field goal in OT to beat Arkansas 33-30.  Tennessee scored a TD (no kick required) to beat Kentucky 30-24.

2 - Number of chances it took Les Miles and LSU to figure out how to manage the clock at the end of a game.   If you're going to call timeout, do it right after the play ends.  Use the sidelines and get out of bounds.  Give yourself time to kick the field goal at the end.  Unlike last week, LSU did all these things against Arkansas, propelling themselves to overtime and a win.

7-5 - Regular season record of, count 'em, 6 SEC teams: Arkansas, Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina and Tennesee.    How do you determine who goes to what bowl out of that mish-mash?

0 - Number of ACC Division Champs able to beat middling SEC teams on Saturday.  South Carolina dominated Atlantic Division Champ Clemson 34-17.  Georgia outlasted a comeback attempt by Coastal Division Champ #7 Georgia Tech 30-24.  As if we needed more evidence of the SEC's superiority over the ACC.

South Carolina Recruiting Bowl

What you see here is what I like to call Fake Hype. Clemson is very good at fake hype. They brainwash their freshman into thinking God himself couldn't make a creation to top their campus (did I mention it is an exact replica of Auburn's campus?). Have you ever heard a Clemson alumn ever say anything about their school that didn't use absolute terms in describing the greatness that they [wrongfully] think it is?

That's where this picture comes in. This is the "lifesize" heisman poster put out by Clemson before the beginning of the season. The only problem is that not-unlike Clemson's view of itself, this poster is larger than life. The poster is 6 feet tall, which is taller than even brand new cleats and sole inserts could make C.J. Spiller. Just check his stats and look at the poster next to Clemson coach/insurance salesman, Dabo Sweeney. In case you didn't know Dabo is just a phoenetic spelling for what his relatives used to call him when he was a youngin'. Slightly smarter people would have enunciated Dabo into Dat Bo...or Dat Boy...or finally...That Boy.

If you can't tell yet, there is a special kind of hatred reserved for Dat Boy and his team (mainly his team and its fans). The only problem is that we play them after getting beat on by the SEC for a whole season (where we usually become bowl eligible early and then go cold during the home stretch), while Clemson gets to beat up on the likes of Wake Forest, Duke, North Carolina, NC State, and Virginia to build their false sense of confidence going into the finale.

Granted, Spiller did have a great game or two on offense this season (one game where he ran, threw, and received a touchdown in the same game). But, his main damage has come on special teams this year. Therefore, he can be negated and they can be beaten; just ask Maryland...who lost to William and Mary but beat Clemson.

So what happens tomorrow during this game? No one knows with these two teams. There have been too many blowouts, too many head-scratchers, and too victories for the the kings of Fake Hype. At some point if I am going to claim all of the hype is fake, the Gamecocks are going to have to expose the fraud. The Gamecocks are going to have to kick away from Spiller, shut him down on the run, shut him down in the slot, and thoroughly pound his defense to keep him off the field. The game is in Columbia at noon, so in order to enjoy the rest of the day, the Gamecocks are going to have to send the Tigers back to the cow pastures with the hype, hopes, and self image shattered. I want and expect nothing less.

Go Gamecocks!

The Battle for the Golden Egg 2009

Last year's Battle for the Golden Egg was never in doubt. Ole Miss scored 45 points and State gained 37 yards. It was one of the most enjoyable, humiliating defeats I have ever witnessed.

Mississippi State has improved this year. But, could they really have gotten any worse?! I haven't been back to Starkville in close to 11 years. I swore that I never wanted to return and have kept that pledge. State will probably make this game closer than it was last year - and they always try to incite a fight during the pre-game activities. I expect nothing different from the Hunchback of the Golden Triangle, Dan Mullen.

Dexter McCluster only needs 97 yards rushing to become the 4th player in Ole Miss history with 1000+ yards in a season. Look for Dex to get that and then some and look for the Landsharks to shut Anthony Dixon down. This one will appear to be close until the 3rd quarter when the Rebels will wear the helpless, hapless, hopeless Leghumpers down.

The Golden Egg remains in its rightful place - Oxford.

Ole Miss 34
Mississippi State 13

FORWARD REBELS!

Iron Bowl 2009

OK, here's a different perspective:

Auburn finishes up the regular season on the plains against dreaded rival Alabama. Auburn comes in hobbling, starting the season strong with five consecutive wins, only to drop 4 of the last 6, including losses by 7 to both Georgia and Kentucky. Many of Auburn's players (Todd, Ziemba, Trott, etc.) look confused, making mistakes that you'd expect freshmen to make. On the other hand, Alabama is riding a high that, with this win, could mean two straight undefeated regular seasons. There is talk of Ingram winning the Heisman (a long shot, considering who is in this pool), and McElroy is back to his early season form.

I think Auburn may be in this game early, but expect Auburn to fall apart around the 3rd quarter when their depleted team becomes too tired to hang with Alabama. Alabama will look to exploit this weakness on the offensive side with constant running to set up the pass; they will look to exploit this weakness on the defensive side with pressure on Todd, who does not know what to do under pressure.

As much as I'd like to see Auburn win this game, I don't think they are on the same par as Alabama. I'd like to see a close game, but that too will not happen. Prediction: Alabama 34, Auburn 17.

Iron Bowl 2009

The final game of Alabama's regular season is upon us. But before the trip to Atlanta to take on the Gators and then (hopefully) a Championship bowl game in Pasadena, there's arch-rival Auburn. Bama will travel to the plains of Auburn in hopes of retaining the Foy-ODK Sportsmanship Award trophy. This will be the first Bama-Auburn game on a Friday in 21 years. The deck is stacked against the Tigers in this game, but anything can happen.

Auburn's OL is experienced, but thin. They have been lucky to avoid injury here all season. Their rushing attack is lead by Sr. Ben Tate. Tate believed he was the best RB in the state, but forgot about Mark Ingram. If Auburn was actually in Georgia, as some people believe, Tate may be correct.

QB Chris Todd has been inconsistent this season for the Tigers, but is still a quality SEC player. His numbers have been similar to Greg McElroy's. Auburn will have their work cut out for them moving the ball on this Alabama defense. OC Gus Malzahn is a master of misdirection, but a team as disciplined as Alabama should be effective if they play assignment football. Alabama will still try to get to Todd early in the game. Look for blitzes by Sr. Javier Arenas, who is as effective in tackles for loss as he is in returning punts. Other than that, Alabama knows they have a talent advantage. They will play a basic defense and rely on talent and depth to avoid tiring from Malzahn's high-tempo offense.

Alabama will counter as they have all season, with a bruising running game and play action passing. Bama leads the SEC in rushing offense. Auburn is last in the SEC in rushing defense. It does not take a "rocket surgeon" to realize this could be a problem for the Tigers. The fact that Auburn's defense is dinged up from injuries and lack of depth will not help their performance. If LB Eltoro Freeman is not cleared to play, you can bet Ingram will have a performance worthy of a Heisman trophy.

Although I always get nervous at this game, I think the Tide will take care of business. Alabama wins 31-10.