Bowl Breakdown 2010

Yeah, yeah, yeah, we haven't been posting this year. I'm not sure why others didn't, but I had to finish up a Ph.D. My next task is to determine a computer ranking system a la Wes Colley. But I digress.

I thought some more bowl picks were in order. I'm going to include a little analysis and selections, plus my confidence points for all games. I'm not going to swear by these picks as I haven't had a great year in the pick'em department, but I'll bank on my solid analysis last year (23-11 record in picks, with several key game scores ridiculously close...see last year's post for results).

Saturday, December 18:
New Mexico Bowl (2:00 PM ET): BYU vs. UTEP - Two 6-6 teams square off in the first bowl. UTEP is on a downward slide, losing 5 of their last 6 games (including losses to UAB and Marshall), while BYU won 5 of its last 7 games, including one one-point loss to Utah. Prediction: BYU 30, UTEP 21. Confidence Points: 27. (Actual: BYU 52, UTEP 24 - Record: 1-0, 27/27 points)

uDrove Humanitarian Bowl (5:30 PM ET): Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State - I thought Northern Illinois was supposed to be good, and they were shown up in the MAC by Miami of Ohio. Fresno State, although winning lately by the slimmest of margins, plays a much tougher schedule late in the season. Prediction: Fresno State 31, Northern Illinois 28. Confidence Points: 4. (Actual: Northern Illinois 40, Fresno State 17 - Record: 1-1, 27/31 points)

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (9:00 PM ET): Ohio vs. Troy - Neither of these teams has played great, but Troy's solid passing game should be enough to put them over the top. Prediction: Troy 41, Ohio 23. Confidence Points: 1. (Actual: Troy 48, Ohio 21 - Record: 2-1, 28/32 points)

Tuesday, December 21:
Beef O Brady's Bowl St. Petersburg (8:00 PM ET): Southern Mississippi vs. Louisville - I'll admit that Southern Mississippi looks like the team to beat in this game, but something about Louisville keeps bringing me back to them. I can't put my finger on it, but I like Louisville here. Prediction: Louisville 27, Southern Mississippi 24. Confidence Points: 5. (Actual: Louisville 31, Southern Mississippi 28 - Record: 3-1, 33/37 points)

Wednesday, December 22:
Maaco Bowl Las Vegas (8:00 PM ET): Utah vs. Boise State - I can't believe Boise State fell as far as they did. I still think they are a solid team, and if it weren't for the backwards BCS rules preventing teams from perceived "lesser" conferences from being in BCS games, I think Boise State would be there. This seems like a no-brainer. Prediction: Boise State 48, Utah 21. Confidence Points: 33. (Actual: Boise State 26, Utah 3 - Record: 4-1, 66/70 points)

Thursday, December 23:
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Navy vs. San Diego State - Yes, the game is in San Diego. That makes it virtually a home game for the Aztecs. However, Navy has had a solid year, losing their three games by a combined 14 points. The ground attack is the best it has ever been, and the passing game was showcased in the last two games, where Ricky Dobbs had over 160 yards in each game. I'm going to take Navy as the slight upset. Prediction: Navy 35, San Diego State 34. Confidence Points: 13. (Actual: San Diego State 35, Navy 14 - Record: 4-2, 66/83 points)

Friday, December 24:
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Hawaii vs. Tulsa - Hawaii has had a return to greatness this year. They won 10 games and shared the WAC champion title with Nevada and Boise State. Granted this is not the Hawaii team of 4-5 years ago, they are nonetheless a solid team. Tulsa has also had a good year, running off wins in their last six games, including wins over quality opponents Southern Mississippi and Notre Dame. Look for a shootout in this one, with a win by the home team. Prediction: Hawaii 49, Tulsa 45. Confidence Points: 28. (Actual: Tulsa 62, Hawaii 35 - Record: 4-3, 66/111 points)

Sunday, December 26:
Little Caesar's Bowl (8:30 PM ET): Florida International vs. Toledo - Granted neither of these teams seem to be that good this year, FIU needed a 4-1 record down the stretch just to make it to 6-6. I love the Golden Panthers (my Nintendo NCAA football team of choice), but Toledo seems to have more weapons. Toledo also won the matchup last year between these two teams. Prediction: Toledo 38, FIU 20. Confidence Points: 24. (Actual: FIU 34, Toledo 32 - Record: 4-4, 66/135 points)

Monday, December 27:
Advocare V100 Independence Bowl (5:00 PM ET): Air Force vs. Georgia Tech - If you like rushing, then this is your bowl game. Featuring the top two rushing offenses of the year (GT #1, AF #2), look for the ball to enter air space only on a toss sweep. I give this game 3 hours maximum. I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched, but I'm going with Georgia Tech, also in a slight upset. Prediction: Georgia Tech 28, Air Force 24. Confidence Points: 3. (Actual: Air Force 14, Georgia Tech 7 - Record: 4-5, 66/138 points)

Tuesday, December 28:
Champs Sports Bowl (6:30 PM ET): West Virginia vs. North Carolina State - Both of these teams have been up and down this year. West Virginia's three losses are by a combined 14 points to LSU, Syracuse, and Connecticut. NC State came out like gangbusters early, then lost several games they should have won, including losses at Clemson, Maryland, and East Carolina. West Virginia has been the more consistent team of the two, in my opinion. Prediction: West Virginia 36, NC State 34. Confidence Points: 12. (Actual: NC State 23, West Virginia 7 - Record: 4-6, 66/150 points)

Insight Bowl (10:00 PM ET): Missouri vs. Iowa - On paper, Missouri should run away with this one. This is a much better than 7-5 Iowa team. I don't know how you give Michigan State their only loss of the season by 31 points, then lose to Minnesota. Missouri seemed destined for a BCS game early, then lost a couple of in-conference away games. Gun to my head, I'd take Missouri, but not by much. Prediction: Missouri 27, Iowa 24. Confidence Points: 6. (Actual: Iowa 27, Missouri 24 - Record: 4-7, 66/156 points) (Note: right score, wrong teams)

Wednesday, December 29:
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman (2:30 PM ET): East Carolina vs. Maryland - East Carolina has played spoiler over the last few seasons, winning some high profile games while losing what should have been easy wins. Maryland is actually a better team than they have been the past few years, but they have been up and down this year. I like Maryland here to win and am confident in that selection, but I still think it will be close. Prediction: Maryland 24, E. Carolina 20. Confidence Points: 25. (Actual: Maryland 51, E. Carolina 20 - Record: 5-7, 91/181 points)

Texas Bowl (6:00 PM ET): Illinois vs. Baylor - Neither team has played well down the stretch, but Baylor looks to be the more solid team. Plus the game's in Texas, so this is an easy pick. Prediction: Baylor 34, Illinois 23. Confidence Points: 18. (Actual: Illinois 38, Baylor 14 - Record: 5-8, 91/199 points)

Valero Alamo Bowl (9:15 PM ET): Oklahoma State vs. Arizona - The wheels have officially fallen off the Arizona bus with their four consecutive losses to end the season. Oklahoma State lost two games in which they scored 41 points each, so against Arizona, points should be easy to come by. Prediction: Oklahoma State 41, Arizona 27. Confidence Points: 30. (Actual: Oklahoma State 36, Arizona 10 - Record: 6-8, 121/229 points)

Thursday, December 30:
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl (12:00 PM ET): Army vs. Southern Methodist - Yes, Army is a branch of the Armed Forces, but the game is in SMU's stadium. Easy choice: Prediction: SMU 23, Army 21. Confidence Points: 21. (Actual: Army 16, SMU 14 - Record: 6-9, 121/250 points)

New Era Pinstripe Bowl (3:20 PM ET): Kansas State vs. Syracuse - I've always liked Kansas State...I think it goes back to watching them dominate in the late 90s, and I like that they brought Bill Snyder back for a second run. Syracuse has been flat as of late, and they are averaging only 21 points per game. Also, why are we having a football game at Yankee Stadium? Prediction: Kansas State 34, Syracuse 17. Confidence Points: 8. (Actual: Syracuse 36, Kansas State 34 - Record: 6-10, 121/258 points)

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl (6:40 PM ET): North Carolina vs. Tennessee - North Carolina has been inconsistent this year, and Tennessee, since finding Tyler Bray, has looked like a different team than the one that played the early games this season. And the game is in Tennessee, not that North Carolina is too far away. Prediction: Tennessee 25, North Carolina 20. Confidence Points: 22. (Actual: North Carolina 30, Tennessee 27 (OT) - Record: 6-11, 121/280 points)

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl (10:00 PM ET): Nebraska vs. Washington - This is going to be a lopsided game. For those who say Jake Locker is a great quarterback, I point to the 6-6 record and the just over 200 passing yards per game. Also, Nebraska's three losses are by a combined 13 points. And they beat Washington in the regular season by 35. Prediction: Nebraska 31, Washington 21. Confidence Points: 32. (Actual: Washington 19, Nebraska 7 - Record: 6-12, 121/312 points)

Friday, December 31:
(Note: Starting today, because of my terrible record, I am switching some of my picks. New predictions begin here.)
Meineke Car Care Bowl (12:00 PM ET): South Florida vs. Clemson - Both of these teams have had down years. Most of South Florida's wins and losses were by very few points. The same can be said of Clemson. I really don't like either of these teams that much as favorites for the game. Prediction: South Florida 27, Clemson 21. Confidence Points: 14. (Actual: South Florida 31, Clemson 26 - Record: 7-12, 135/326 points)

Hyundai Sun Bowl (2:00 PM ET): Notre Dame vs. Miami - Highly-touted Miami finished 7-5. Not much was expected out of Notre Dame other than in its fanbase, and they finished 7-5 also. If Jacory Harris doesn't throw 4 interceptions, Miami should win the game easily. That's a big "if", though. Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Miami 24. Confidence Points: 20. (Actual: Notre Dame 33, Miami 17 - Record: 8-12, 155/346 points)

AutoZone Liberty Bowl (3:30 PM ET): Georgia vs. UCF - Georgia was lucky to make it to a bowl game, and now they are favored over UCF. I guess they have played better as of late. I think the problem with picking UCF is that they haven't been tested this year. But they are the C-USA champions. Prediction: UCF 28, Georgia 23. Confidence Points: 9. (Actual: UCF 10, Georgia 6 - Record: 9-12, 164/355 points)

Chick-Fil-A Bowl (7:30 PM ET): South Carolina vs. Florida State - This is a premier matchup for this bowl game. Both teams have a lot to prove, and this game should come down to which team gets an early jump on the other. If I had to choose, I'd rather have Christian Ponder at the helm than Stephen Garcia. Prediction: Florida State 31, South Carolina 24. Confidence Points: 10. (Actual: Florida State 26, South Carolina 17 - Record: 10-12, 174/365 points)

Saturday, January 1:
Ticketcity Bowl (12:00 PM ET): Northwestern vs. Texas Tech - Northwestern is back playing a January 1 bowl game early, just like last year. They feel like they're on the cusp of being a pretty good team, but Persa is done and a freshman QB wil be playing instead. Texas Tech's passing game is just as good with Potts in the backfield. Also, Northwestern hasn't won a bowl game since 1949; look for that streak to continue. Prediction: Texas Tech 35, Northwestern 21. Confidence Points: 19. (Actual: Texas Tech 45, Northwestern 38 - Record: 11-12, 193/384 points)

Capital One Bowl (1:00 PM ET): Alabama vs. Michigan State - This is a good matchup between quality programs, both at one time coached by Nick Saban. Michigan State is 11-1, but they don't feel like an 11-1 team. Alabama is 9-3, but they don't feel like a 9-3 team. Alabama could have easily won over LSU and Auburn. I like Alabama's chances in this one. Prediction: Alabama 31, Michigan State 17. Confidence Points: 29. (Actual: Alabama 49, Michigan State 7 - Record: 12-12, 222/413 points)

Outback Bowl (1:00 PM ET): Florida vs. Penn State - Who schedule Alabama and Florida to play at the same time? I'd like to watch both, but would probably watch Alabama over Florida. Florida is a shell of its former self, but they will be up to win the game for outgoing Urban Meyer. Penn State, while they did salvage what looked to be an awful season, has lost all of the big games. Prediction: Florida 27, Penn State 21. Confidence Points: 16. (Actual: Florida 37, Penn State 24 - Record: 13-12, 238/429 points)

Progressive Gator Bowl (1:30 PM ET): Mississippi State vs. Michigan - Yet a third SEC team playing at the same time. Mississippi State has had an excellent season, their only losses coming to premier teams in the league (Auburn, Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas). Michigan had great expectations, but Denard Robinson is too much of a wild card. Prediction: Mississippi State 24, Michigan 21. Confidence Points: 2. (Actual: Mississippi State 52, Michigan 14 - Record: 14-12, 240/431 points)

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Vizio (5:00 PM ET): Wisconsin vs. TCU - Which wins out: Wisconsin's prolific offense or TCU's prolific defense? TCU's offense is not the same as last year, and Wisconsin's defense is also stellar, allowing only 20 points per game. Wisconsin has scored 70 points 3 times this year, including 83 on Indiana, a Big Ten team. Wisconsin gets it done. Prediction: Wisconsin 35, TCU 31. Confidence Points: 23. (Actual: TCU 21, Wisconsin 19 - Record: 14-13, 240/454 points)

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (8:30 PM ET): Connecticut vs. Oklahoma - I'm glad there is at least one incredibly easy game to pick. Prediction: Oklahoma 45, Connecticut 17. Confidence Points: 35. (Actual: Oklahoma 48, Connecticut 20 - Record: 15-13, 275/489 points)

Monday, January 3:
Discover Orange Bowl (8:30 PM ET): Stanford vs. Virginia Tech - Stanford is a bruising team led by Heisman runner-up Andrew Luck. Virginia Tech is not the same team that lost to James Madison earlier in the year...they have now run off 11 straight wins and convincingly. I really wouldn't want to have to pick this game, but I like Stanford by the slightest of margins. Prediction: Stanford 31, Virginia Tech 28. Confidence Points: 7. (Actual: Stanford 40, Virginia Tech 12 - Record: 16-13, 282/496 points)

Tuesday, January 4:
Allstate Sugar Bowl (8:30 PM ET): Ohio State vs. Arkansas - Arkansas has two losses to Auburn and Alabama, games they could have easily won. Ryan Mallett should easily throw for 250 yards against Ohio State, who has historically had a problem with good SEC teams. Prediction: Arkansas 31, Ohio State 27. Confidence Points: 15. (Actual: Ohio State 31, Arkansas 26 - Record: 16-14, 282/511 points)

Thursday, January 6:
Godaddy.com Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Middle Tennessee State vs. Miami of Ohio - Miami won the MAC championship game over a supposedly dominant Northern Illinois team. Middle Tennessee State won over Florida Atlantic. You do the math. Prediction: Miami (OH) 27, MTSU 17. Confidence Points: 26. (Actual: Miami (OH) 35, MTSU 21 - Record: 17-14, 308/537 points)

Friday, January 7:
AT&T Cotton Bowl (8:00 PM ET): LSU vs. Texas A&M - This should be a good matchup. LSU is admittedly better than I expected. So is Texas A&M. This game is in Texas, but I'm going to go with the SEC team here. Prediction: LSU 20, Texas A&M 17. Confidence Points: 11. (Actual: LSU 41, Texas A&M 24 - Record: 18-14, 319/548 points)

Saturday, January 8:
BBVA Compass Bowl (12:00 PM ET): Pittsburgh vs. Kentucky - Dion Lewis should run up and down the field all day. Kentucky lived up to its mediocre expectations and make it to a bowl game by beating SEC East champion South Carolina. Prediction: Pittsburgh 28, Kentucky 17. Confidence Points: 17. (Actual: Pittsburgh 27, Kentucky 10 - Record: 19-14, 336/565 points)

Sunday, January 9:
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (9:00 PM ET): Nevada vs. Boston College - Nevada should run away with this one, especially since Boston College has had some issues on offense this year. Another easy one on paper. Prediction: Nevada 41, Boston College 16. Confidence Points: 34. (Actual: Nevada 20, Boston College 13 - Record: 20-14, 370/599 points)

Monday, January 10:
Tostitos BCS National Championship Game (8:30 PM ET): Oregon vs. Auburn - First to 50 wins! I like Auburn's chances in what may be the only year I ever see Auburn get to play for the national championship. If Auburn can contain the outside runs by LaMichael James, they should win. Prediction: Auburn 45, Oregon 38. Confidence Points: 31. (Actual: Auburn 22, Oregon 19 - Record: 21-14, 401/630 points)

Bowl Breakdown: Accountability Edition

So a month ago I made score predictions for all of the bowl games. Now, unlike Corso, Herbstreit, and all of the other people who make predictions but never follow up on how well (or poorly) they did, I will stand behind my predictions and own up to how well (or poorly) I did. I'll let you, the reader, decide on my job performance.

I did correctly pick 23 winners out of 34 (67.6%). I was only picking winners, not against the spread. However, I will be analyzing other statistics below based on how close I was to actual scores for teams, games, and margins of victory.

I will be comparing my predictions to the actual results in three ways: 1) I will compare the score I predicted for each team to their actual score in the bowl game (the actual score will be their score at the end of regulation, since overtimes tend to inflate the scores); 2) I will compare the total points scored by both teams (at the end of regulation) to the actual total points scored by both teams; and 3) I will compare the margin of victory I predicted for each game to the actual margin of victory, this time using scores at the end of overtime and taking into consideration which team won.

Score Comparisons (by team, 68 total):
Team scores predicted correctly: 5 (UCF, Boston College, Oklahoma, LSU, Texas)
Team scores off by 1: 4 (Southern Miss, Temple, Bowling Green, Penn State)
Team scores off by 2: 5 (California, Marshall, Idaho, Ohio State, Connecticut)
Team scores off by 3: 4 (Stanford, West Virginia, South Florida, Texas Tech)
Team scores off by 4: 1 (Michigan State)
Team scores off by 5: 2 (Iowa State, Florida State)
Team scores off by 6: 4 (Fresno State, UCLA, Navy, Minnesota)
Team scores off by 7: 4 (USC, Northern Illinois, Iowa, Central Michigan)
Team scores off by 8: 2 (Kentucky, Wisconsin)
Total number of team scores off by 1 score: 31

Team scores off by 2 scores (9-16 points): 24 (Wyoming [11], BYU [13], Oregon State [10], Utah [10], SMU [10], Ohio [14], North Carolina [10], Clemson [10], Georgia [10], Texas A&M [11], Nebraska [12], Air Force [16], Missouri [14], Virginia Tech [11], Tennessee [10], Auburn [11], Northwestern [12], Oregon [14], Florida [16], Cincinnati [10], Ole Miss [10], East Carolina [14], Troy [11], Alabama [13])

Team scores off by more than 2 scores (17+ points): 13 (Rutgers [18], MTSU [22], Nevada [42], Pittsburgh [22], Miami [17], Arizona [27], Houston [28], South Carolina [17], Oklahoma State [18], Arkansas [21], Boise State [27], TCU [35], Georgia Tech [31])


Score Comparisons (by game, 34 total):
Total scores off by 1 score (8 points or less): 14 (Wyoming-Fresno State [5], BYU-Oregon State [3], USC-Boston College [7], Georgia-Texas A&M [1], UCLA-Temple [7], Idaho-Bowling Green [1], Oklahoma-Stanford [3], Navy-Missouri [8], Virginia Tech-Tennessee [1], Florida State-West Virginia [2], Penn State-LSU [1], Florida-Cincinnati [6], South Florida-Northern Illinois [4], Texas Tech-Michigan State [7])

Total scores off by 2 scores (9-16 points): 7 (Utah-California [12], Marshall-Ohio [16], Nebraska-Arizona [15], Air Force-Houston [12], Iowa State-Minnesota [11], Ohio State-Oregon [12], Alabama-Texas [13])

Total scores off by 3 scores (17-24 points): 7 (Rutgers-UCF [18], MTSU-Southern Miss [23], Clemson-Kentucky [18], Auburn-Northwestern [23], Connecticut-South Carolina [19], Iowa-Georgia Tech [24], Central Michigan-Troy [18])

Total scores off by 4 scores (25-32 points): 4 (SMU-Nevada [32], Pittsburgh-North Carolina [32], Wisconsin-Miami [25], Ole Miss-Oklahoma State [28])

Total scores off by more than 4 scores (33+ points): 2 (Arkansas-East Carolina [35], Boise State-TCU [62])


Margin Comparisons (by game, 34 total):
Margin off by 1 score (8 points or less): 15 (Utah-California [8], USC-Boston College [7], Clemson-Kentucky [2], UCLA-Temple [5], Idaho-Bowling Green [3], Oklahoma-Stanford [3], Iowa State-Minnesota [1], Auburn-Northwestern [2], Florida State-West Virginia [8], Penn State-LSU [1], Ole Miss-Oklahoma State [8], Arkansas-East Carolina [4], Texas Tech-Michigan State [1], Boise State-TCU [8], Central Michigan-Troy [1])

Margin off by 2 scores (9-16 points): 7 (Marshall-Ohio [12], Pittsburgh-North Carolina [12], Wisconsin-Miami [9], Ohio State-Oregon [16], South Florida-Northern Illinois [10], Connecticut-South Carolina [15], Alabama-Texas [13])

Margin off by 3 scores (17-24 points): 7 (Wyoming-Fresno State [24], Rutgers-UCF [18], MTSU-Southern Miss [21], BYU-Oregon State [23], Georgia-Texas A&M [21], Navy-Missouri [20], Virginia Tech-Tennessee [21])

Margin off by 4 scores (25-32 points): 1 (Florida-Cincinnati [26])

Margin off by more than 4 scores (33+ points): 4 (SMU-Nevada [52], Nebraska-Arizona [39], Air Force-Houston [44], Iowa-Georgia Tech [38])


If there are other statistics you'd like to see, please post in the comments section.

Auburn-Northwestern Preview

Auburn takes on Northwestern tomorrow in the Outback Bowl, 11 AM ET, on ESPN. I'm upbeat about the game, and I think Auburn will win, but there will be some questions:

1) Will Auburn's sometimes-missing offense show up?

2) Will Northwestern's defense play like they have played this year?

3) Will the players be awake for the early morning game? Auburn had trouble with this earlier in the year.

Rather than write up a lot of the statistics matching up the teams, I direct you to this article that does just that. Auburn looks like the team to beat, but of course, several teams who have already lost looked like the team to beat (Fresno State, Nevada, Houston). All I can say is I hope for a good showing for Auburn and a win, no matter by how many points. I earlier predicted that Auburn would win, 24-23. I will now append to predict one more touchdown for Auburn and a 31-23 win.

War Eagle!

Ridiculous Bowl Game Names & Lofty Claims

Are you tired of all the corporate sponsors for bowl games? Me too. Whatever happened to just the Liberty Bowl or the Peach Bowl or the Poulan Weedeater Bowl (OK, that last one I guess falls under being a corporate sponsor, but c'mon, it's Poulan.)? Here is a good story on those ridiculous titles. It is funny that at least three games are being sponsored by groups who took federal bailout money (GMAC, two games sponsored by Citi). If we're going to go that route, I'd personally like to see the Bernie Madoff Bowl in the future.

Here's another one. I'm sure if you're here in Birmingham (or anywhere else in the state) that you've seen Academy Sports has signs saying they'll open right after Alabama's national championship victory. Well over in Texas, they're doing the same thing for the Longhorns - see Academy's website for information on store openings. Now, I'm an Auburn fan AND I think Alabama will win. But what if Alabama doesn't win? Will Academy not open its doors until they do win a national championship? That could take years. The same for Texas. So I guess, either way, a lot of Academy stores will be closed indefinitely. Judging from the list of stores, I think Academy wants Texas to win, they have many more stores in their list than Alabama does. (Please read with sarcasm.)

Bowl Update

I will be editing my previous post on bowl predictions throughout the bowl season with final scores and records, so keep checking it out to see how I do (which, by the way, will be terrible, I'm sure).

Bowl Breakdown

I am again taking on the daunting challenge of analyzing a whole bunch of football in one sitting (see here and here for previous daunting challenges). As everyone knows, the bowls were finalized yesterday, and there is so much college football out there, it's like a whole new season began today. With that in mind, here's a breakdown of the entire bowl season, with some analysis and selections:

Saturday, December 19:
New Mexico Bowl (4:30 PM ET): Fresno State vs. Wyoming - Look for Fresno, who isn't afraid of anyone, to show Wyoming that although you may be better than in years past, you're still Wyoming. Prediction: Fresno State 34, Wyoming 17. (Actual: Wyoming 35, Fresno State 28 (OT) - Record: 0-1)

St. Petersburg Bowl (8:00 PM ET): UCF vs. Rutgers - Both of these teams have been up and down this year, and this feels like a pretty even matchup. Most of UCF's losses have come to highly ranked teams, but they do have a pretty bad pass defense, and Rutgers likes to toss the ball. Rutgers lost to Syracuse, but I like them here. Prediction: Rutgers 27, UCF 24. (Actual: Rutgers 45, UCF 24 - Record: 1-1)

Sunday, December 20:
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (8:30 PM ET): Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee State - Sure, MTSU is 9-3, but if you look at their schedule, they lost to opponents in BCS conferences (except Maryland, who had a terrible season, and it was only a 1-point win). With the exception of a loss to UAB, Southern Miss's losses were by 7 points or less. Prediction: Southern Miss 31, MTSU 20. (Actual: MTSU 42, Southern Miss 32 - Record: 1-2)

Tuesday, December 22:
Maaco Bowl Las Vegas (8:00 PM ET): Oregon State vs. BYU - This feels like it should be a game later in the bowl season. Oregon State played Oregon down to the wire for the Pac-10 championship, and BYU's only losses were to Florida State early in the season and TCU, who should be playing for a national championship against Alabama. Prediction: BYU 31, Oregon State 30. (Actual: BYU 44, Oregon State 20 - Record: 2-2)

Wednesday, December 23:
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Utah vs. California - Um, which California team is going to show up - the one that lost to Washington, Oregon, and USC by 27-39 points or the one or the one that beat Stanford and Arizona by 7 or less? On the flipside, Utah's wins this year have been by just a little generally. Prediction: Utah 27, California 25. (Actual: Utah 37, California 27 - Record: 3-2)

Thursday, December 24:
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Nevada vs. SMU - All I'm going to say is SMU lost to Washington State, which was their only win. Oh yeah, Nevada's offense is really good (OK, that's two things). Prediction: Nevada 52, SMU 35. (Actual: SMU 45, Nevada 10 - Record: 3-3)

Saturday, December 26:
Little Caesar's Bowl (1:00 PM ET): Marshall vs. Ohio - I'm surprised Marshall even got a bowl game at 6-6. Solich's Ohio team has been very good this year, keeping games tight with Connecticut and Tennessee. Prediction: Ohio 31, Marshall 23. (Actual: Marshall 21, Ohio 17 - Record: 3-4)

Meineke Car Care Bowl (4:30 PM ET): Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina - It's a shame that Pitt isn't playing around Jan. 1, but at least they drew an ACC team, which means they will probably get the win. North Carolina beat Virginia Tech and Miami, but they lost to NC State, Virginia, and Florida State (which is because of the ACC default rule where the worse team wins). Prediction: Pittsburgh 41, North Carolina 27. (Actual: Pittsburgh 19, North Carolina 17 - Record: 4-4)

Emerald Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Boston College vs. USC - USC took a monumental tumble this year, and it shows by their game being on 12/26. I'm not sure Boston College was relevant this year, but then again, neither was USC. The differences between the two teams: USC is still ranked because of their media darling status and the bowl is in their home state. Prediction: USC 17, Boston College 13. (Actual: USC 24, Boston College 13 - Record: 5-4) (Note: The score was as I predicted until about 12 minutes left in the game when USC scored one more touchdown.)

Sunday, December 27:
Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl (8:30 PM ET): Kentucky vs. Clemson - Clemson hung right in there against Georgia Tech, and Spiller, if he has a good game, will prove too much for Kentucky. Prediction: Clemson 31, Kentucky 21. (Actual: Clemson 21, Kentucky 13 - Record: 6-4)

Monday, December 28:
Advocare V100 Independence Bowl (5:00 PM ET): Texas A&M vs. Georgia - Two Jekyll & Hyde teams meet up for this one. Texas A&M has played better recently than earlier in the year, and Georgia is on the upswing after lulling in the middle of the season. This one also feels close. Prediction: Georgia 34, Texas A&M 31. (Actual: Georgia 44, Texas A&M 20 - Record: 7-4)

Tuesday, December 29:
Eaglebank Bowl (4:30 PM ET): UCLA vs. Temple - Temple ran off 9 wins in a row in the middle of their season, with the highlight in that stretch a win over Navy, 27-24. Meanwhile, UCLA started off 3-0 before imploding. Their 3-1 stretch over the last four games got them to 6-6. However, in Pac-10 vs. MAC, I'll have to go with the BCS team. Prediction: UCLA 24, Temple 20. (Actual: UCLA 30, Temple 21 - Record: 8-4)

Champs Sports Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Miami vs. Wisconsin - Miami looked solid in their last game against South Florida, and Wisconsin hasn't been a pushover this year, losing three to solid (at the time) Big Ten teams. Prediction: Miami 31, Wisconsin 28. (Actual: Wisconsin 20, Miami 14 - Record: 8-5)

Wednesday, December 30:
Roady's Humanitarian Bowl (4:30 PM ET): Bowling Green vs. Idaho - Bowling Green has the momentum here, winning its last four and six of its last seven. Idaho, who started out 6-1, dropped 4 of its last 5. But the game's in Idaho. Prediction: Idaho 45, Bowling Green 41. (Actual: Idaho 43, Bowling Green 42 - Record: 9-5)

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Arizona vs. Nebraska - Thus far, this is the matchup to see. I thought Nebraska had pulled off the upset against Texas, and Arizona has played with the best of the Pac-10 this year. I wish I could call it a tie, but I think Arizona wins down the stretch. Prediction: Arizona 27, Nebraska 21. (Actual: Nebraska 33, Arizona 0 - Record: 9-6)

Thursday, December 31:
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl (12:00 PM ET): Houston vs. Air Force - Houston comes in hobbling from their loss to ECU in the C-USA championship game. Air Force has won the games they should this season, but they have also lost the games they should. Houston's defense won't stop Air Force's run game, and Case Keenum will have a field day passing, say 550 yards. Prediction: Houston 48, Air Force 31. (Actual: Air Force 47, Houston 20 - Record: 9-7)

Brut Sun Bowl (2:00 PM ET): Oklahoma vs. Stanford - Toby Gerhart should win the Heisman, but he won't. Oklahoma shouldn't have blanked or beat Oklahoma State, but they did. Surprisingly close, I'll give this one to the Sooners. Prediction: Oklahoma 31, Stanford 30. (Actual: Oklahoma 31, Stanford 27 - Record: 10-7)

Texas Bowl (3:30 PM ET): Navy vs. Missouri - All of Navy's games, wins or losses, have been tight this year, and Missouri has won 4 of its last 5. I like the ground attack of Navy to take this one. Prediction: Navy 29, Missouri 27. (Actual: Navy 35, Missouri 13 - Record: 11-7)

Insight Bowl (6:00 PM ET): Minnesota vs. Iowa State - This feels like a snoozer. In the few games I saw Minnesota play this season, they looked stagnant. Iowa State's results look like a mixed bag. So who wins? The more important question is: Who cares? Prediction: Iowa State 9, Minnesota 7. (Actual: Iowa State 14, Minnesota 13 - Record: 12-7)

Chick-Fil-A Bowl (7:30 PM ET): Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee - Now we're talking. On paper Virginia Tech takes this one easily. In reality, this could be a tight one. Tennessee has played well of late, but I still say that Virginia Tech had an outside shot at a BCS game. Prediction: Virginia Tech 26, Tennessee 24. (Actual: Virginia Tech 37, Tennessee 14 - Record: 13-7)

Friday, January 1:
Outback Bowl (11:00 AM ET): Northwestern vs. Auburn - For some reason, people like my brother think Northwestern is a pushover. Au contraire, mon frere (literally). Northwestern beat Iowa and Wisconsin despite being heavy underdogs. Auburn has shown signs of life, and hopefully they will continue in this way, playing for more than the 1st quarter. Prediction: Auburn 24, Northwestern 23. (Actual: Auburn 38, Northwestern 35 (OT) - Record: 14-7)

Konica Minolta Gator Bowl (1:00 PM ET): West Virginia vs. Florida State - Do you think the Florida State team will be up to win Bobby Bowden's last game at the helm? You better believe it! Florida State pulls the upset. Prediction: Florida State 28, West Virginia 24. (Actual: Florida State 33, West Virginia 21 - Record: 15-7)

Capital One Bowl (1:00 PM ET): Penn State vs. LSU - This seems like a decent matchup for this game. Penn State got snubbed for Iowa (yes, I know Iowa beat them, but Stanzi is out, and Iowa is a different team with Vandenburg in at QB). LSU barely survived against Arkansas after losing with a bone-headed decision by Les Miles. This game will be dominated by defense. Prediction: Penn State 20, LSU 17. (Actual: Penn State 19, LSU 17 - Record: 16-7)

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi (4:30 PM ET): Ohio State vs. Oregon - As much as I'd like to say Ohio State loses again, I'm not sure this one is so cut and dry. Oregon has played sub-par lately despite winning. Ohio State hasn't looked great either, despite winning. Two somewhat mediocre teams playing in the Rose Bowl. Prediction: Oregon 31, Ohio State 24. (Actual: Ohio State 26, Oregon 17 - Record: 16-8)

Allstate Sugar Bowl (8:30 PM ET): Florida vs. Cincinnati - This one looks like a good matchup also. Cincinnati has been winning by the skin of their teeth lately, especially in the final regular season game against Pittsburgh. Florida doesn't look so dominant after being humbled by Alabama. I think the Gators will have their hands full with a Cincinnati team with a legitimate claim to playing in the national championship game, but I think they'll prevail, only slightly. Prediction: Florida 35, Cincinnati 34. (Actual: Florida 51, Cincinnati 24 - Record: 17-8)

Saturday, January 2:
International Bowl (12:00 PM ET): South Florida vs. Northern Illinois - Northern Illinois hasn't played anyone, and South Florida has skidded since losing Matt Grothe at QB. You can sleep through this one. Prediction: South Florida 24, Northern Illinois 10. (Actual: South Florida 27, Northern Illinois 3 - Record: 18-8)

Papajohns.com Bowl (2:00 PM ET): South Carolina vs. Connecticut - High expectations were had for both of these teams at the beginning of the season. South Carolina imploded for the second half, salvaging the season with a win over rival Clemson. Connecticut played through adversity with the shooting death of Jasper Howard right after their homecoming game. With the game in Birmingham, South Carolina has an advantage and wins. Prediction: South Carolina 24, Connecticut 22. (Actual: Connecticut 20, South Carolina 7 - Record: 18-9)

AT&T Cotton Bowl (2:00 PM ET): Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss - This one also seems like an easy call for Oklahoma State. Both teams lost to their rivals during rivalry week, and both look like they have played better. Oklahoma State has desperately needed Dez Bryant, and Ole Miss has desperately needed Jevan Snead, although he has actually been playing. I think I'll go with the SEC on this one. Prediction: Ole Miss 31, Oklahoma State 25. (Actual: Ole Miss 21, Oklahoma State 7 - Record: 19-9)

AutoZone Liberty Bowl (5:30 PM ET): Arkansas vs. East Carolina - I underestimated East Carolina. They beat Houston bad in a game that few saw happening. Arkansas ran up a string of wins until Alex Tejada's missed field goal in OT game LSU the win. C-USA doesn't have the depth of even a mid-range SEC team. Prediction: Arkansas 38, East Carolina 31. (Actual: Arkansas 20, East Carolina 17 (OT) - Record: 20-9)

Valero Alamo Bowl (9:00 PM ET): Michigan State vs. Texas Tech - Michigan State has played OK, with an almost win over Iowa when Iowa was good. Texas Tech was edged out by Oklahoma State and Houston and has played like a much better team than their record reflects. Prediction: Texas Tech 38, Michigan State 27. (Actual: Texas Tech 41, Michigan State 31 - Record: 21-9)

Monday, January 4:
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Boise State vs. TCU - As much as I'm looking forward to watching this game, I think the BCS committee took the easy way out by making these two non-BCS conference teams play each other. I would much rather watch Boise State beat Oklahoma (2006-7) and Utah beat Alabama (2008-9) than watch those types of teams play each other. TCU, I think, has a legitimate claim to the title game, and I think if Boise State picked up some quality opponents, they'd have a better argument for themselves. The problem is, though, that no BCS teams want to play Boise State. I think this is another evenly matched game, and I don't really know who to go with. If I had to pick one, I think I'd take TCU. Prediction: TCU 45, Boise State 44. (Actual: Boise State 17, TCU 10 - Record: 21-10)

Tuesday, January 5:
FedEx Orange Bowl (8:00 PM ET): Iowa vs. Georgia Tech - Snore. Prediction: Georgia Tech 45, Iowa 17. (Actual: Iowa 24, Georgia Tech 14 - Record: 21-11)

Wednesday, January 6:
GMAC Bowl (7:00 PM ET): Central Michigan vs. Troy - This is virtually a home game for Troy, and they'll need it. Dan LeFevour is now the all-time I-A leader in touchdowns throwing, rushing, and receiving combined with 148. Yes, he caught a touchdown on a reverse against Northern Illinois in 2007. Troy can hang with teams from lesser conferences, but I think Central Michigan has the talent to win this one in Troy's backyard. Prediction: Central Michigan 27, Troy 23. (Actual: Central Michigan 44, Troy 41 (OT) - Record: 22-11)

Thursday, January 7:
Citi BCS National Championship Game (8:00 PM ET): Texas vs. Alabama - As much as it pains me to say, I think Alabama has the most well-rounded team in the nation. I though Greg McElroy was a question mark coming into the season, but he has proven to be the leader that Alabama needed. Texas, on the other hand, comes into the game limping but not defeated after a nailbiter victory over Nebraska. Texas doesn't have the running game, and making them one-dimensional is the key to an Alabama victory. However, you can't deny the McCoy-Shipley connection. Since 2002, the team ranked #2 has won the game every year except for after the 2004 season in which USC defeated Oklahoma. On the flipside, the SEC is 5-0 in BCS national championship games. This will be one of the tightest national championship games since the Ohio State double overtime win over Miami after the 2001 season. Prediction: Alabama 24, Texas 21. (Actual: Alabama 37, Texas 21 - Record: 23-11) (Note: This was the score with about 2 minutes left. Alabama scored one more touchdown, then piled on another when it was unneccesary.)

Bowl picture clears for Auburn

As reported earlier, Auburn accepted a bid to the Outback Bowl, 10 am on January 1, potentially playing against Wisconsin for the third time in a bowl game since 2003. Auburn should count itself lucky to get the best bowl game of predicted bowl games for the six SEC teams with 7-5 records (by the way, Auburn's record against these other five 7-5 teams is 1-3 with a win against Tennessee and losses against Kentucky, Georgia, and Arkansas...Auburn didn't play South Carolina).

This site has projected bowls and teams who have accepted bids to bowl games already. As of posting time, it appears six teams have accepted bids:

1) UCF, to the St. Petersburg Bowl (December 19)
2) SMU, to the Hawaii Bowl (December 24)
3) Navy, to the Texas Bowl (December 31)
4) Auburn, to the Outback Bowl (January 1)
5) Ole Miss, to the Cotton Bowl (January 2)
6) Oklahoma State, also to the Cotton Bowl (January 2)