Bowl Breakdown: Accountability Edition

So a month ago I made score predictions for all of the bowl games. Now, unlike Corso, Herbstreit, and all of the other people who make predictions but never follow up on how well (or poorly) they did, I will stand behind my predictions and own up to how well (or poorly) I did. I'll let you, the reader, decide on my job performance.

I did correctly pick 23 winners out of 34 (67.6%). I was only picking winners, not against the spread. However, I will be analyzing other statistics below based on how close I was to actual scores for teams, games, and margins of victory.

I will be comparing my predictions to the actual results in three ways: 1) I will compare the score I predicted for each team to their actual score in the bowl game (the actual score will be their score at the end of regulation, since overtimes tend to inflate the scores); 2) I will compare the total points scored by both teams (at the end of regulation) to the actual total points scored by both teams; and 3) I will compare the margin of victory I predicted for each game to the actual margin of victory, this time using scores at the end of overtime and taking into consideration which team won.

Score Comparisons (by team, 68 total):
Team scores predicted correctly: 5 (UCF, Boston College, Oklahoma, LSU, Texas)
Team scores off by 1: 4 (Southern Miss, Temple, Bowling Green, Penn State)
Team scores off by 2: 5 (California, Marshall, Idaho, Ohio State, Connecticut)
Team scores off by 3: 4 (Stanford, West Virginia, South Florida, Texas Tech)
Team scores off by 4: 1 (Michigan State)
Team scores off by 5: 2 (Iowa State, Florida State)
Team scores off by 6: 4 (Fresno State, UCLA, Navy, Minnesota)
Team scores off by 7: 4 (USC, Northern Illinois, Iowa, Central Michigan)
Team scores off by 8: 2 (Kentucky, Wisconsin)
Total number of team scores off by 1 score: 31

Team scores off by 2 scores (9-16 points): 24 (Wyoming [11], BYU [13], Oregon State [10], Utah [10], SMU [10], Ohio [14], North Carolina [10], Clemson [10], Georgia [10], Texas A&M [11], Nebraska [12], Air Force [16], Missouri [14], Virginia Tech [11], Tennessee [10], Auburn [11], Northwestern [12], Oregon [14], Florida [16], Cincinnati [10], Ole Miss [10], East Carolina [14], Troy [11], Alabama [13])

Team scores off by more than 2 scores (17+ points): 13 (Rutgers [18], MTSU [22], Nevada [42], Pittsburgh [22], Miami [17], Arizona [27], Houston [28], South Carolina [17], Oklahoma State [18], Arkansas [21], Boise State [27], TCU [35], Georgia Tech [31])


Score Comparisons (by game, 34 total):
Total scores off by 1 score (8 points or less): 14 (Wyoming-Fresno State [5], BYU-Oregon State [3], USC-Boston College [7], Georgia-Texas A&M [1], UCLA-Temple [7], Idaho-Bowling Green [1], Oklahoma-Stanford [3], Navy-Missouri [8], Virginia Tech-Tennessee [1], Florida State-West Virginia [2], Penn State-LSU [1], Florida-Cincinnati [6], South Florida-Northern Illinois [4], Texas Tech-Michigan State [7])

Total scores off by 2 scores (9-16 points): 7 (Utah-California [12], Marshall-Ohio [16], Nebraska-Arizona [15], Air Force-Houston [12], Iowa State-Minnesota [11], Ohio State-Oregon [12], Alabama-Texas [13])

Total scores off by 3 scores (17-24 points): 7 (Rutgers-UCF [18], MTSU-Southern Miss [23], Clemson-Kentucky [18], Auburn-Northwestern [23], Connecticut-South Carolina [19], Iowa-Georgia Tech [24], Central Michigan-Troy [18])

Total scores off by 4 scores (25-32 points): 4 (SMU-Nevada [32], Pittsburgh-North Carolina [32], Wisconsin-Miami [25], Ole Miss-Oklahoma State [28])

Total scores off by more than 4 scores (33+ points): 2 (Arkansas-East Carolina [35], Boise State-TCU [62])


Margin Comparisons (by game, 34 total):
Margin off by 1 score (8 points or less): 15 (Utah-California [8], USC-Boston College [7], Clemson-Kentucky [2], UCLA-Temple [5], Idaho-Bowling Green [3], Oklahoma-Stanford [3], Iowa State-Minnesota [1], Auburn-Northwestern [2], Florida State-West Virginia [8], Penn State-LSU [1], Ole Miss-Oklahoma State [8], Arkansas-East Carolina [4], Texas Tech-Michigan State [1], Boise State-TCU [8], Central Michigan-Troy [1])

Margin off by 2 scores (9-16 points): 7 (Marshall-Ohio [12], Pittsburgh-North Carolina [12], Wisconsin-Miami [9], Ohio State-Oregon [16], South Florida-Northern Illinois [10], Connecticut-South Carolina [15], Alabama-Texas [13])

Margin off by 3 scores (17-24 points): 7 (Wyoming-Fresno State [24], Rutgers-UCF [18], MTSU-Southern Miss [21], BYU-Oregon State [23], Georgia-Texas A&M [21], Navy-Missouri [20], Virginia Tech-Tennessee [21])

Margin off by 4 scores (25-32 points): 1 (Florida-Cincinnati [26])

Margin off by more than 4 scores (33+ points): 4 (SMU-Nevada [52], Nebraska-Arizona [39], Air Force-Houston [44], Iowa-Georgia Tech [38])


If there are other statistics you'd like to see, please post in the comments section.